On Our Radar

On Our Radar eschelhaas Fri, 07/03/2026 - 19:07 Latest Updates Africa Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa United States Global Issues & Institutions My Reading List Special Coverage / Global 03 July 2026 20+ minutes On Our Radar On Our Radar scans conflicts and crises around the globe every week and features some of the hotspots Crisis Group’s analysts are closely watching. Whether an under-reported trend or a headline-grabbing development, our field experts explain why it matters or what should be done. Share BlueSky Email Facebook Linkedin Twitter Whatsapp Save Print 3 July 2026 AFGHANISTAN - PAKISTAN Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan flared again this week. On Sunday, Pakistani forces once again carried out strikes across the border in Afghanistan, saying they killed 29 militants. Islamabad said the strikes were retaliation for recent attacks inside Pakistan, including a Karachi assault that killed three security personnel. According to the UN, at least 28 civilians were killed and another 49 injured in the strikes. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of sheltering anti-Pakistan militants, which Taliban officials deny. On Wednesday, Afghanistan said it carried out strikes inside Pakistan, targeting ISIS and other armed opposition groups. Islamabad denies Taliban accusations of harbouring such groups and noted that it had intercepted four drones launched from Afghan territory. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says outside mediators should push the sides toward practical border and security arrangements before the cycle of strikes and counterstrikes escalates further. NIGERIA Violence is again escalating in north-western Nigeria. Long plagued by bandits who engage in mass kidnappings for ransom, pillage and extortion, the region is also now seeing increased jihadist activity. Together, bandit and jihadist attacks killed over 150 people in Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara states in June, a notable uptick from previous months. On 28 May, Islamic State Sahel Province claimed what appears to be its first reported attacks in the region, in which eighteen soldiers and one police officer were killed in Kebbi and Sokoto states. Amid this escalation, on 20 June prominent bandit leader Bello Turji claimed responsibility for deadly attacks on troops and declared his group ready for either peace talks or prolonged war with the government. If the bandit and jihadist threats are not reined in, says Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi, north-western Nigeria could become part of the wider belt of instability in the Sahel. SUDAN Fighting centred on El Obeid, North Kordofan’s state capital, has intensified in recent weeks as drone strikes increase and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) mobilise around the city, raising fears of encirclement and blockade. UN relief chief Tom Fletcher warned Tuesday that El Obeid risks becoming “another El Fasher”, referring to North Darfur’s capital, which endured a prolonged siege before falling to the RSF last October and suffering mass atrocities. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says a siege of El Obeid would deepen the humanitarian crisis facing civilians, many of whom have already fled to the city from fighting elsewhere. Meanwhile, the increased use of drones against El Obeid could allow for sustained attacks through the now-beginning rainy season, when ground fighting has typically slowed. 26 June 2026 BOLIVIA President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of exception starting Saturday after more than 50 days of protests triggered by a land reform law and planned austerity measures. Authorities say at least 37 people have been injured in clashes between demonstrators and police. The decree bans the protesters’ roadblocks that have paralysed commercial traffic, causing shortages of basic goods in the administrative capital La Paz, and (temporarily) allows the armed forces to assist police in reopening key routes. It does not, however, suspend fundamental rights, as is often the case with states of exception in Latin America. Before making the declaration, Paz had signed an agreement to “pacify” the country with the biggest trade union, the Bolivian Workers’ Central, which withdrew from the streets. Most of the roadblocks have vanished since the measure took effect. But Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says tensions remain high. The unrest could erupt anew if the government fails to deliver on socio-economic commitments it made to the union or if other groups involved in the protests, including campesinos and Indigenous people, decide to resume the pressure. COLOMBIA Right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella won Sunday’s presidential runoff by the thinnest margin in Colombian history, defeating Iván Cepeda, who had campaigned on continuing leftist President Gustavo Petro’s social reform agenda. De la Espriella styles himself as an outsider. Boasting of his ties to U.S. President Donald Trump, who endorsed him before the vote, he has vowed to take an iron-fist approach to organised crime, for instance pledging to bomb narco-traffickers and build mega-prisons. Many Colombians are ready for such measures, says Crisis Group expert Renata Segura, having become frustrated with Petro’s attempts to negotiate “total peace” with criminal and other armed groups. But, as the close vote shows, nearly half the electorate is equally concerned about de la Espriella’s promise to circumvent checks and balances in pursuit of quick fixes. To protect public safety, Colombia needs to balance crimefighting with efforts to plug the gaps in state services that criminal organisations exploit, including for recruitment. The new government should not disregard negotiations, which, if done the right way, have proven an effective tool for reducing violence in Colombia. U.S. - IRAN U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Wednesday that technical delegations from the U.S. and Iran will reconvene at the end of June to resume talks aimed at ending the conflict between the two countries. By the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached between the Trump administration and Tehran in Islamabad earlier this month, these working groups are tasked with negotiating the details leading to a “final deal”, including nuclear commitments by Iran and sanctions relief provisions by the U.S. Maintaining momentum in dialogue is critical, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, as the two sides have put forward clashing interpretations of the parameters they agreed to in Pakistan. The negotiations have many moving parts – related to the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon, among other issues. In this ambitious scope lies promise, but also peril, as a setback on any one front could derail the whole endeavour. 19 June 2026 HAITI Visiting Tuesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said Haiti is suffering “the worst humanitarian crisis in the Western Hemisphere”. He toured the headquarters of the new Gang Suppression Force assembled to battle the criminal bands bedevilling the country. The UN released figures showing that gang violence has killed 2,300 people in the year to date and displaced a record 1.5 million more. Gangs have also kidnapped around 100 Haitians, including the defence ministry’s cabinet director last week. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says much hope rests on the new force, but whether it can deliver remains to be seen as it builds toward its mandated strength of 5,500. Gangs, meanwhile, appear to be adapting, attacking senior officials and expanding abductions into formerly safe areas, possibly to deter anti-gang operations where kidnapping victims are held. MYANMAR - CHINA Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Myanmar’s coup-leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing on a state visit to Beijing this week. The two sides reaffirmed their “community with a shared future” and signed eighteen agreements covering areas including transport and development. The visit highlighted Beijing’s priorities in Myanmar: border stability, protection of Chinese investment, progress on select China-Myanmar Economic Corridor projects and continued cooperation in combating online scams and other transnational crime. Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey says the state visit’s symbolism may matter more than any individual deal, as it provides Min Aung Hlaing with a measure of the international legitimacy he craves. For China, meanwhile, it is an opportunity to lock in a dependency that provides growing strategic opportunities, while it pushes for greater calm in conflict-affected areas along the Myanmar border. UKRAINE - RUSSIA Overnight into Thursday, Ukraine launched its largest drone assault on Moscow since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, hitting an oil refinery and injuring at least seventeen people. Russia said it intercepted 194 drones around Moscow and nearly 1,000 drones and several cruise missiles nationwide over 24 hours. Ukraine said the attack was a response to Russian strikes earlier this week that damaged the UNESCO-listed Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra monastery. Moscow warned it would respond forcefully. Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says the attacks highlight Ukraine’s efforts to demonstrate it can hit targets far inside Russia using deep-strike drones. But while such attacks create headlines, they have yet to affect the Kremlin’s warfighting ability and may harden support for the war among the Russian public. 12 June 2026 AFGHANISTAN - PAKISTAN Pakistan launched air raids Wednesday across the border with Afghanistan, killing 26 Pakistani Taliban fighters, according to Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar. The Afghan authorities, however, said the strikes killed thirteen people, including eleven children. The air raids came one day after Pakistani Taliban fighters ambushed a security outpost in Pakistan’s north west, killing six officers. These incidents ended a month of calm in the conflict between the two countries. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says violent flare-ups like these are likely to persist as long as both countries’ security concerns remain unaddressed. IRAN - U.S. The fragile April ceasefire between Washington and Tehran wobbled as the two sides engaged in increasingly sharp exchanges of fire. U.S. forces launched repeated strikes on Iranian targets as Tehran retaliated by targeting U.S. bases in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait; Iran and Israel also traded blows for the first time in two months. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that the U.S. would take control of Kharg island, site of Iran’s main oil terminals, and other energy infrastructure. He backtracked later in the day, cancelling new strikes and insisting that a negotiated deal with Tehran was close. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says an agreement would be welcome if it steadies the shaky truce and gives Washington and Tehran a clear path to future negotiations. Those talks are likely to be fraught, however, and may not guarantee the end of hostilities if certain issues remain unresolved, such as Israel’s continued attacks on and occupation of over 20 per cent of Lebanon. WESTERN SAHARA A Moroccan airstrike on Sunday killed three Polisario Front members who were carrying out an attack on Moroccan fortifications in Western Sahara. Among the dead was Lehbib Mohamed Abdelaziz, son of Polisario’s former secretary general, who had been rumoured to be a candidate to become the Front’s leader. His death marks a major loss for the Polisario. The Moroccan strike came as UN envoy Staffan De Mistura was visiting the Tindouf refugee camps for consultations with the Polisario. Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says this latest episode shows that negotiations to resolve the Western Sahara conflict are under increasing strain. The Polisario and its ally Algeria have routinely rejected framework agreements based on Morocco’s autonomy plan as other deadly attacks have eroded trust between the parties. 5 June 2026 COLOMBIA Far-right presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won a first-round victory in the 31 May elections, setting up a 21 June run-off against left-wing senator Iván Cepeda. Cepeda promises to reduce inequality and continue talks with armed groups, while de la Espriella advocates iron-fist policies, including bombing organised crime groups, building mega-jails and restoring traditional values. After the vote, President Gustavo Petro alleged irregularities, despite international observers calling the vote transparent, while U.S. President Donald Trump openly backed de la Espriella. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says Petro’s claims raise concerns over a peaceful transfer of power if Cepeda loses, while Trump’s involvement has fuelled resentment over foreign interference, which could further trigger demonstrations. The run-off could also test whether Trump’s endorsement helps or hurts candidates elsewhere in the region. CONFLICT-RELATED SEXUAL VIOLENCE The UN on 29 May released its annual report on conflict-related sexual violence, showing that reported cases more than doubled in 2025 after rising 25 per cent the year before. UN Women also recently reported that in Sudan alone, the number of women and girls needing support after sexual violence has quadrupled since civil war broke out three years ago. Crisis Group expert Cristal Downing says survivor services are increasingly scarce after major U.S. aid cuts in 2025 hit programming for which Washington had been the largest donor. Compounding the problem, Washington’s February 2026 “Protecting Human Flourishing in Foreign Assistance” policy restricts aid recipients’ work and speech on abortion. Though the policy’s ban on “promoting” abortion exempts cases of rape, many NGOs fear inconsistent enforcement and unclear compliance requirements, leaving them to choose between U.S. conditions that may limit post-rape care and refusing funding at the risk of jeopardising their wider operations. LEBANON Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday agreed to a new U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal, which would establish pilot zones in southern Lebanon where Hizbollah operatives would be barred. The deal follows a severe Israeli escalation, including its deepest incursion into Lebanese territory in 26 years, which threatened to upset ongoing U.S.-Iran talks. The ceasefire depends on Hizbollah halting attacks and withdrawing fighters from south of the Litani River to allow the Lebanese army to assume control there. On Thursday, Hizbollah rejected the terms, after Israel said it would continue military operations for now. Crisis Group expert David Wood says the “pilot zones” proposal could offer a pragmatic way to address the parties’ security concerns. Unless Israel and Hizbollah both cease fire, however, this latest agreement will soon collapse entirely. 29 May 2026 GAZA Nickolay Mladenov, the Bulgarian diplomat tasked by the U.S.-designed Board of Peace with overseeing the Gaza ceasefire, briefed the UN Security Council last week on his team’s first six months of work. He was upbeat, releasing a fifteen-point “roadmap” for the next stage. But conditions remain dire on the ground. Israel’s siege is tightening, meaning that reconstruction is impossible. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday he has ordered the Israeli army to increase the proportion of Gaza it controls from 60 to 70 per cent, in effect squeezing the strip’s two million people into an even tighter corner. Israeli airstrikes have taken more than 900 Palestinian lives during the ceasefire, including the commander of Hamas’s armed wing and, only days later, his successor, who was killed Wednesday along with his family. Israeli media reported that the Board of Peace had “approved” the assassinations. Crisis Group expert Max Rodenbeck says the Board’s strategy of making relief for Gaza’s people, whether humanitarian aid or broader hopes for the future, conditional on Hamas’s willingness to surrender its arms is deeply troubling and a recipe for prolonging their misery. KOREAN PENINSULA Pyongyang said it tested two new missiles Tuesday, including a short-range, nuclear-capable cruise missile that it plans to deploy with troops facing South Korean soldiers across the Korean peninsula’s demilitarised zone. The same day, Seoul said it had also detected North Korean missile launches toward waters off the peninsula’s western coast. Crisis Group expert Chris Green says the advanced weapon tests will deepen the freeze in peninsular relations, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un branding South Korea his country’s foremost enemy and pledging to make the border “an impregnable fortress”. Along with Pyongyang’s growing closeness to Moscow and questions about Washington’s commitment to defending South Korea amid its mounting competition with Beijing, the tests are likely to bolster the consensus in Seoul behind more intensive military modernisation of its own. MALI As many as 50 people were killed Wednesday in jihadist raids on two villages in the central Mopti region, underscoring the breadth of the threat posed by the al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). Meanwhile, JNIM continued to enforce a partial siege of the capital Bamako, preventing scores of trucks bearing fuel and other supplies from reaching the city. In the north, Malian forces have stepped up airstrikes on Kidal and surrounding areas following the major offensive launched on 25 April by JNIM and northern separatist groups. Crisis Group expert Jean-Hervé Jezequel says these developments show that weapons continue to do the talking in Mali, even as the situation points to the urgent need for a genuine political dialogue. 22 May 2026 AFGHANISTAN Together with various NGOs, the UN released a plan Tuesday for aiding Afghan refugees expected to return from Iran and Pakistan in the coming months. The UN projects that 2.7 million people will cross back into Afghanistan between April and December. Already, nearly 5.9 million refugees have come back since September 2023, many of them forced to do so by harsh Pakistani visa policies amid rising tensions between Islamabad and the Taliban authorities in Kabul. Now the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran will likely compel many Afghans living in the Islamic Republic to leave, even as the exodus from Pakistan continues. Many of these people are women, who will face draconian Taliban restrictions on freedom of movement and economic activity. The returnees also include children, some of whom have never even been to Afghanistan and will be at greater risk of child marriage, which the Taliban have lately recognised as a legal act. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says international donors should give generously to fund the $529 million UN response plan, without which many returnees will be destitute. NIGERIA The military announced Tuesday that joint strikes carried out with the U.S. had killed 175 jihadist fighters in the preceding week, in addition to destroying stockpiles of arms. The strikes began on 16 May with one that killed Abu Bakr al-Mainuki, deputy leader of the Islamic State-West Africa Province (ISWAP), who had been coordinating activities with jihadists in the Sahelian countries. At a hearing in Washington on Tuesday, General Dagvin Anderson, head of U.S. Africa Command, told U.S. legislators that “the epicentre of global terrorism is in Africa”. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says the latest operations underscore that Nigerian-U.S. security cooperation is deeper than Abuja and Washington had indicated earlier. They are a setback for ISWAP, at least for the time being. U.S. - CUBA The U.S. indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro Wednesday for murder and conspiring to kill U.S. nationals. The charges relate to a 1996 incident in which Cuban fighter jets shot at planes flown by anti-Castro Cuban Americans trying to help Cubans escape the island. These legal developments arrive amid renewed speculation that the Trump administration intends to decapitate the Cuban regime much as it did the Venezuelan government with its raid to snatch former President Nicolás Maduro in early January. Senior U.S. officials, most recently Central Intelligence Agency head John Ratcliffe, have held a series of semi-secret meetings with high-ranking figures in Havana this spring. Publicly, Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel has remained defiant, rejecting the allegations against Castro as a “political manoeuvre”. Meanwhile, the U.S. has tightened a blockade of Cuba that has precipitated a humanitarian crisis and sent additional warships to the Caribbean Sea. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says any attempt to forcibly break the tight grip the Cuban Communist Party and military have upon the state could result in violent chaos and further suffering for the Cuban people. 15 May 2026 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO A spate of lethal violence in the north-eastern Ituri province over the past two weeks has underscored the complexity of the country’s crisis. In late April, a group of Codeco militiamen killed at least 69 people, mainly civilians, in a series of separate attacks. Allied with the Congolese government, Codeco claims to defend the interests of the Lendu people, most of whom are farmers, from encroachment by ethnic Hema herders. According to local sources, it raided several Hema villages in retaliation for assaults on Congolese army positions by a Hema armed group. The following week, gunmen from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan insurgency now affiliated with the Islamic State, killed at least fifteen people in Biakato, an Ituri market town. The province has been under martial law since 2021, the same year that Uganda (with Kinshasa’s permission) sent in troops to pursue ADF militants based in Congolese territory. Crisis Group expert Onesphore Sematumba says the latest killings demonstrate the inadequacy of a purely military response to insecurity stemming from inter-communal tensions, competition for natural resources, state weakness and other causes. DISPLACEMENT A new report from the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre shows that armed conflict has become the number-one cause of internal displacement worldwide, surpassing natural disasters, for the first time on record. War and violence drove some 32.3 million people from their homes in 2025, the most ever, representing a 60 per cent increase over 2024. The internal displacements in Iran and the Democratic Republic of Congo made up two thirds of the global total. Crisis Group President and CEO Comfort Ero says these numbers are a sobering reminder of how pervasive conflict has become in today’s world. The human cost of war is never abstract. Preventing war means not just saving lives but also sparing people the pain and distress of being uprooted, often with no certainty of ever going home. U.S. - CHINA U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded their long-awaited summit Friday. Crisis Group experts Ali Wyne and William Yang say it produced no major breakthrough, such as a joint commitment to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nor did it bring a major reversal, which some in Taiwan had feared, such as Trump agreeing to scale back U.S. arms sales or change Washington’s longstanding declaratory policies toward the island. The summit was nonetheless illuminating in two respects. First, it underscored Trump’s desire to gain a greater foothold in China for U.S. businesses as well as his conviction that a strong working rapport with Xi can produce a cooperative relationship between Washington and Beijing. Secondly, it showcased how significantly China’s power and confidence have grown since Trump last visited China in November 2017. 8 May 2026 CAMBODIA - THAILAND The Thai cabinet voted Tuesday to cancel a 2001 memorandum of understanding with Cambodia on overlapping claims in the Gulf of Thailand. The agreement had provided for delimitation of maritime zones and joint development of hydrocarbon reserves in a portion of the 26,000 sq km overlapping claims area. Yet, in the 25 years since they signed it, the two countries have neither undertaken such projects nor resolved their territorial dispute. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who campaigned on scrapping the document arguing that it had failed to achieve its objectives, insists that the decision is unrelated to tensions with Cambodia following border clashes in 2025. Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler says the cancellation will please Thai nationalists who have long alleged that the agreement placed Bangkok at a disadvantage, despite its language saying it is “without prejudice to the maritime claims of either party”. Cambodia expressed regret at Thailand’s action and said it plans to initiate compulsory conciliation, a non-binding dispute resolution mechanism under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. ETHIOPIA A showdown may be looming in Tigray, Ethiopia’s northernmost region, after its ruling party reinstated a state council Tuesday that was dissolved immediately before the bloody 2020-2022 Tigray war. The council was originally elected in 2020, in defiance of the federal government’s wishes. Addis Ababa installed a regional administration of its own choosing following the war, which Tigray’s ruling party has now, in effect, deposed. All eyes are now on the federal government, says Crisis Group expert Magnus Taylor, watching for how it will respond. It has already imposed what amounts to an economic siege on Tigray, blocking fuel supplies and withholding budget subsidies. It may simply tighten these measures. Or it may intervene militarily to reinstate an Addis Ababa-aligned administration. A new conflict in Tigray could drag in neighbouring countries, particularly Eritrea, adding to the turmoil in the Horn of Africa, as Addis Ababa and Asmara appear to be aligning with different sides in Sudan’s civil war. U.S. - CHINA Chinese leader Xi Jinping is due to host U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing next week for a long-awaited summit, which had been slated for the end of March. Crisis Group experts Ali Wyne and William Yang say trade will likely feature high on the agenda, with both men aiming to maintain the tariff truce they reached last year. The Middle East conflict – which caused the delay – will also loom large, and both will seek to use it for leverage. The U.S. has sanctioned five Chinese oil refiners and accused China of “funding the largest state sponsor of terrorism” as it maintains a naval blockade of Iran. But Washington needs Chinese gallium to replenish its stockpile of missile interceptors in the Middle East, and it may need Beijing’s help to get Tehran back to the negotiating table. In exchange, Xi may try to extract security concessions from Trump, perhaps by asking him to lessen U.S. defence backing for Taiwan or to declare that the U.S. “opposes“ (rather than “does not support“, which is the longstanding U.S. position) Taiwanese independence. 1 May 2026 AFGHANISTAN - PAKISTAN Fresh violence between Afghanistan and Pakistan erupted this week. Afghan authorities said Pakistani mortars and missiles hit a university and residential neighbourhoods in eastern Kunar province on Monday, killing at least seven people and wounding at least 85. Pakistan denied targeting civilians, saying its strikes aimed at militants, based on intelligence. Pakistani officials accused Afghan forces of cross-border attacks as well, including mortar fire at Chaman and South Waziristan, which they said killed several civilians and injured others. The exchanges followed China-mediated talks in April, during which the two sides agreed to explore a diplomatic solution to their dispute. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says mutual partners, particularly China, should urge both sides to de-escalate tensions, including through an agreed-upon oversight mechanism, to prevent the situation from deteriorating further. COLOMBIA Nearly two dozen people are dead and scores injured after a series of apparently coordinated attacks in the country’s south west that authorities blamed on Estado Mayor Central (EMC), a dissident faction of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. Militants used drones, explosives and roadblocks to hit targets including police stations and military bases. On 25 April, improvised explosive devices went off on a major highway in Cauca, striking a bus and other civilian vehicles, killing at least twenty. The preceding a day, a bus full of explosives detonated near a major military base in Cali, Colombia's third-largest city. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says the wave of violence indicates EMC’s capacity to disrupt daily life and terrorise civilians. Colombia's next president, to be elected on 31 May, will need to take urgent steps to better protect civilians. MALI On Saturday, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, alongside separatists from the Azawad Liberation Front in northern Mali, assailed seven Malian cities, including the capital Bamako. Militants struck the garrison at Kati, less than 20km from Bamako, often described as the centre of military power, where they assassinated the defence minister and reportedly wounded other regime figures. They also retook the northern city of Kidal, the symbolic seat of the separatist movement, before negotiating the departure of Russian paramilitaries and Malian troops. Crisis Group expert Jean-Hervé Jézéquel says these attacks mark a new stage in Mali’s decades-long jihadist insurgency, characterised by increased pressure on urban areas, aimed at weakening and delegitimising state authority. 24 April 2026 JAPAN On Monday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet lifted restrictions on the export of lethal weapons, allowing Japan to sell arms to seventeen countries with which it has defence transfer agreements. Tokyo first limited such transactions in 1967 and instituted a near total ban in 1976. It will continue to bar arms exports to countries at war, but exceptions may be granted. Meanwhile, last Saturday Beijing said two Chinese navy ships had transited waters between Japan’s Amami Oshima and Yokoate islands for exercises in the western Pacific. The announcement came one day before Japanese combat troops joined the annual Philippine-U.S. Balikatan exercise for the first time. Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler says these developments illustrate the accelerating defence modernisation in the Asia Pacific in response to what U.S.-allied countries perceive as Beijing’s coercive behaviour and uncertainty about Washington’s ability to sustain strategic focus on the region. ROHINGYA Nearly 900 Rohingya refugees died or were reported missing while trying to make perilous sea crossings in 2025, the UN said last week. It is the highest number ever, representing one in seven of the Rohingya who braved such journeys. Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean says this grim record points to the increasing desperation among the Rohingya in camps in southern Bangladesh, who are facing cuts to food aid. Unable to go home to Myanmar’s Rakhine State, which is wracked by war, or to work legally in Bangladesh, ever more refugees are trying to escape by boat to Malaysia, Thailand or Indonesia. The new Bangladeshi government should permit Rohingya to secure jobs in sectors with labour shortages. The more ways the Rohingya have to earn a living in refuge, the fewer of them will risk their lives at sea. U.S. - IRAN President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran Tuesday, though keeping the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports in place. Iran tightened its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday, firing on two cargo vessels attempting passage. Negotiations in Pakistan seem to be on hold, with conflicting signals about whether Tehran will send a delegation. With major combat on pause, say Crisis Group experts Michael Wahid Hanna and Ali Vaez, both sides are seeking to gain the upper hand through economic disruption – Washington by tightening its financial squeeze on the Islamic Republic and Tehran by prolonging the uncertainty in global markets. Both can keep inflicting pain, but their game of chicken could escalate into renewed hostilities at any time. Meanwhile, it adds yet another impediment to resuming talks. 17 April 2026 LIBYA The rival Tripoli and Benghazi-based legislative bodies approved a U.S.-mediated unified budget Saturday. The first such budget in more than thirteen years, it consolidates public spending throughout the country within a single framework. The budget’s passage coincided with the launch of the U.S.-led Flintlock 26 special forces joint training exercise in Sirte, bringing together Libya's two rival military coalitions alongside troops from the U.S., Italy and ten African nations. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini says both initiatives are part of Washington's effort to bridge the gap between the country's two governments and their respective leading families: the Haftars in the east and the Dabaibas in the west. Many Libyans remain sceptical of moves that entrench the two families' authority, however, and wary of a budget deal that sounds promising but whose details have yet to be made public. SOUTH SUDAN Opposition forces this week retook the strategic town of Akobo in Jonglei state after government troops withdrew. Akobo is one of the last strongholds of fighters loyal to Vice President Riek Machar, whom President Salva Kiir’s government detained and put on trial last year. The army had seized the town in March. The fighting comes amid mounting warnings from the UN and aid organisations about deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Jonglei, where both sides stand accused of blocking aid access and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians through sweeping evacuation orders. Crisis Group expert Daniel Akech says the conflict shows no sign of abating. The toll of hostilities is already severe. Without stronger external pressure for de-escalation, conditions are likely to worsen. UKRAINE Russia launched over 600 drones and dozens of missiles at Ukrainian cities early Thursday, reportedly killing eighteen people, one of its deadliest air raids on Ukraine this year. Moscow said the barrage was retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on energy and military facilities. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who visited Germany, Norway and Italy this week seeking more air defence systems, has warned that Ukraine faces a severe shortage of the Patriot interceptors needed to fend off Russian ballistic missiles. As the war in the Middle East further depletes global interceptor stocks, Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim says Ukraine will become increasingly vulnerable to Russian aerial attack. 10 April 2026 AFGHANISTAN - PAKISTAN Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed Wednesday not to escalate their conflict further but to persevere at dialogue, following mediation by China. Fighting between the two countries has killed hundreds and displaced almost 100,000 since late February. Cross-border fire also cut the supply routes to some 100,000 people in Afghanistan’s Nuristan province, leaving them unable to receive the humanitarian aid they need. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says the continued talks are a positive sign. It remains to be seen, however, if Kabul and Islamabad can reach a sustainable settlement that includes verification mechanisms. IRAN The U.S. and Iran agreed Wednesday to a two-week ceasefire in the war that began on 28 February, with negotiations starting Friday in the Pakistani capital. The truce has been honoured in the breach, however, with Israel continuing to bomb Lebanon, Iran hitting Gulf Arab states and commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining suppressed. President Donald Trump underscored that the U.S. military is poised to resume hostilities if diplomatic efforts fail. After the fog of war comes the smog of ceasefire, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez. The parties have different interpretations of the ceasefire’s terms and are sticking to maximalist negotiating positions as the high-stakes talks in Islamabad commence. LEBANON On Wednesday, Israel carried out its heaviest airstrikes in Lebanon since its latest war with Hizbollah began on 2 March, killing more than 300 people and injuring over a thousand in just 24 hours. The strikes, which Israel claims aimed to knock out Hizbollah assets, hit densely populated areas in Beirut, the Bekaa valley and southern Lebanon. On Thursday and Friday, Israel launched another 50 air raids, killing at least seventeen more people. Crisis Group expert David Wood says the U.S. and European countries should put concerted pressure on Israel to extend the two-week ceasefire to Lebanon. Since Hizbollah entered the Middle East war, Israeli bombardment has killed more than 1,530 people, including 130 children, and displaced roughly one in every five Lebanese. 3 April 2026 HAITI Fresh gang violence struck central Haiti after the Gran Grif gang attacked Jean-Denis in Petite-Rivière de l’Artibonite, a stronghold of community defence groups, on Sunday. Its assaults went on for days, reportedly killing at least 70 people and displacing around 9,000. On Tuesday, Gran Grif reportedly joined another gang, Kokorat San Ras, in seizing parts of nearby Marchand-Dessalines. The flare-up coincides with the arrival of the first Chadian troops under the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force, as Kenyan officers who served in the Multinational Security Support mission begin to withdraw. Crisis Group expert Diego Da Rin says the attacks show that gangs remain entrenched despite having scaled back their activity in recent months. They control most of the capital Port-au-Prince and are likely assessing their next moves outside it. Haitian security forces must stand ready during the high-risk period ahead. Gangs could go on the offensive as the Kenya-led mission phases out and the new force takes over. IRAN In a speech Wednesday evening, President Donald Trump said the U.S. would hit Iran “extremely hard”, sending it “back to the Stone Age” by bombing power plants if Tehran does not acquiesce to U.S. terms for ending the war. He also claimed such a deal was nearing completion. Washington has meanwhile deployed thousands more troops in the region, while Iran has continued attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab neighbours. Tehran has also kept a stranglehold on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as Yemen’s Houthis warn that further escalation could prompt them to close the Bab al-Mandab, increasing the strain on maritime traffic. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says a month of U.S.-Israeli strikes have brought the Iranian regime no closer to capitulation. So long as Washington and Tehran are pressing maximalist demands, believing they can force the other to yield, the war risks getting worse. SYRIA Sectarian unrest erupted in the predominantly Christian town of Suqaylabiyah in western Syria last Saturday. An argument over allegations of harassment reportedly prompted hundreds of men from the neighbouring Sunni-majority town of Qalaat al-Madiq to rush into Suqaylabiyah, ransacking Christian shops, homes and other property. Clashes lasted for hours until government forces brought in reinforcements to restore order. Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says the episode underscores persistent shortcomings in Syria's security architecture. State forces tend to react to such incidents rather than help prevent them. Largely drawn from the Sunni majority, these forces lack understanding of minority groups, whose trust in the new authorities is fast eroding. Until the government addresses those weaknesses, the risk of more such violence will remain high – particularly in diverse areas where tensions built over fourteen years of war are still raw. 27 March 2026 IRAN With the Middle East war in its fourth week, the Trump administration submitted to Tehran, via Pakistani mediators, what U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff described as a “fifteen-point action list that forms the framework for a peace deal”. The plan, among other things, would reportedly require that the Islamic Republic give up its capacity to enrich uranium, which it has previously refused to do. Iran has countered with its own list of demands, including that the U.S. withdraw from all its military bases in the Gulf, which Washington has dismissed out of hand. Meanwhile, the U.S. is sending more ground troops to the region. A negotiated end to the conflict seems out of reach for now, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, as each side thinks its wartime position remains favourable. More likely is a protracted standoff or, worse, a dramatic escalation. IRAQ Fresh hostilities erupted this week between the U.S. and Iraqi militias backed by Tehran. These groups belong to an umbrella institution, the Hashd al-Shaabi, that is formally under the aegis of the Iraqi military commander-in-chief, though some of them operate independently. Those aligned with Iran have launched several rockets at U.S. bases in Iraq and neighbouring countries. A retaliatory U.S. airstrike on the Hashd headquarters in Baghdad killed fifteen fighters and another on a military facility in western Iraq claimed seven more lives. Meanwhile, the peshmerga in Iraqi Kurdistan, who are friendly to Washington, said Iranian missiles hit one of their bases in Erbil, killing six. The Iraqi government protested the infringements upon its sovereignty. But it lacks the leverage to stop the deadly exchanges, says Crisis Group expert Lahib Higel. The country is also facing an impending fiscal crisis, as oil sales have declined steeply with the Strait of Hormuz mostly shut. SUDAN UN agencies issued statements Tuesday protesting a “sharp increase” in drone warfare that is taking a mounting civilian toll. At least 70 people were killed the previous day when drones hit a hospital in East Darfur. Patients, doctors and nurses were among the dead. Another 28 civilians were killed in drone strikes in North Darfur and North Kordofan Thursday. Crisis Group expert Shewit Woldemichael says both main belligerents in Sudan’s war, the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), have stepped up their use of drones in an attempt to get an edge on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the risk of spillover into neighbouring countries is heightening, with the RSF taking a town on the Ethiopian border and fighting continuing on the Chadian frontier. 20 March 2026 CHAD - SUDAN A drone attack Wednesday killed seventeen people in Chad’s border town of Tine, including mourners gathered for a funeral and children playing nearby. The Chadian government accused the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan of launching the drone. In late February, the RSF had hit Chadian army positions in Tine, killing several Chadian soldiers. President Mahamat Déby ordered a total closure of the border with Sudan, which could have negative humanitarian consequences. The border has officially been closed since April 2023, but until now authorities have been allowing some refugees and aid shipments through. He also warned that Chad would retaliate for any further strikes on its territory, no matter who is responsible. Crisis Group expert Enrica Picco says Chad, which hosts around one million Sudanese refugees, increasingly risks getting drawn into the war in Sudan as fighting routinely spills across the border. IRAN Oil and gas prices soared and stock markets dived Thursday after Iran struck Qatar’s main natural gas facility, Ras Laffan. The Iranian attack came a day after Israel hit Iran’s South Pars gas field, one of the world’s largest. Crisis Group expert Naysan Rafati says these tit-for-tat attacks on hydrocarbon infrastructure signal a new phase in the conflict, now entering its fourth week, as a global energy crisis looms and Gulf Arab states are increasingly caught in the crossfire, with Saudi Arabia warning of military action against Iran as these states’ patience wears thin. NIGERIA Multiple suicide bombings Monday killed at least 26 people and injured over a hundred in Maiduguri, capital of Nigeria’s Borno state. The attacks mark the second deadliest incident in Maiduguri in the past five years. No group has yet claimed responsibility. The bombings come amid a surge of violence in the country’s north east, with both Boko Haram and the Islamic State-West Africa Province, an ISIS affiliate, launching lethal raids. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says the latest attacks indicate that these insurgencies may again be gaining momentum. The Nigerian government and its foreign partners should step up efforts to counter the new challenge and halt rising insecurity in other parts of the country. 13 March 2026 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO Drone strikes killed several people Tuesday night in Goma, capital of North Kivu province in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, including a French woman working with UNICEF and at least two other residents. The M23 rebels who hold the city blamed the Congolese government for the attacks. Kinshasa said an investigation is under way. Despite a formal ceasefire in their conflict, both the Congolese government and the M23 (backed by Rwandan troops) have been acquiring drones as a means of getting around enemy defences. Tuesday’s attacks, along with another in February that killed M23 spokesperson Willy Ngoma, mark a dramatic escalation in the conflict’s aerial warfare. Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff says Kinshasa, which has purchased Chinese and Turkish drones, is determined to use its new arsenal to show the rebels they are not safe in their bastions. But with civilian casualties mounting, the government’s growing reliance on drones could backfire by costing it international support. Having flexed its muscles, Kinshasa would be well advised to return to the diplomatic arena, pressing for Rwandan withdrawal from the country and returning to negotiations with the M23 with a stronger hand. IRAN Amid a widening Middle East conflict sparked by U.S.-Israeli strikes that began two weeks ago, the Islamic Republic effected only the second transition in its most senior post since the 1979 revolution that brought it to power. Mojtaba Khamenei has taken up the position of Supreme Leader, which his father Ali held from 1989 until his death on 28 February in the war’s opening salvo. The U.S.-Israeli campaign has continued unabated, doing significant damage. Iran has responded with drone and missile strikes in the Gulf and brought traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a crawl. The first official statement attributed to the younger Khamenei was defiant in tone, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, highlighting the Iranian regime's desire to project continuity under duress, vis-à-vis both its foreign adversaries and its domestic opponents. But that ambition could be short-lived if Khamenei is targeted amid the hostilities or outmanoeuvred by other players in the regime's upper echelons. Many Iranians, meanwhile, are despairing at a leadership transition that so far promises more of the same. LEBANON Israel’s latest military escalation in Lebanon continued to wreak havoc this week. Since 2 March, when Hizbollah fired rockets toward Israeli territory for the first time in over a year, Israel has ramped up aerial bombardment, including of the capital Beirut, and forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes. It has also sent more troops into southern Lebanon, with a view to establishing what it calls a “security zone” there. While Israel retains military superiority over Hizbollah, the Shiite party-cum-militia has put up a fight. On Wednesday, it launched a barrage of 100 rockets across the border, which triggered an especially brutal sequence of Israeli air raids. Crisis Group expert David Wood says neither of the belligerents appears ready to stop, even as Lebanese leaders scramble to find a diplomatic off-ramp. Already, the Lebanese public has paid a horrific price: the death toll has climbed to almost 700, and thousands more have seen their homes and communities destroyed. 6 March 2026 IRAN The U.S. and Israel launched massive airstrikes on Iran Saturday, hitting military installations and killing senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In retaliation, Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel, as well as U.S. bases and commercial infrastructure in Gulf states. The conflict's reverberations have quickly spread from the Indian Ocean to the eastern Mediterranean. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says Tehran looks prepared for a drawn-out confrontation, betting that it can steadily raise the psychological and economic costs to its adversaries, while maintaining cohesion at the top of the political system despite Khamenei’s demise. The U.S.-Israeli campaign appears open-ended, with no clear objective yet defined. Airstrikes can substantially degrade Iran's military capabilities but are unlikely to dislodge the regime, and even if they did, state collapse in Iran would risk unleashing far wider regional disorder. AFGHANISTAN - PAKISTAN Border clashes continued this week after Pakistan declared “open war” with Afghanistan last Friday. The declaration followed Taliban retaliatory cross-border attacks after Pakistani airstrikes on purported Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) targets in Afghanistan on 21 February. Pakistan then carried out another series of strikes on 27 February, including in Kabul. Islamabad accuses Taliban authorities of sheltering the TTP, which has stepped up attacks in Pakistan. Kabul denies it. According to the UN, the latest fighting has killed dozens of civilians in Afghanistan and displaced tens of thousands, with reports also indicating civilian casualties in Pakistan. Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss says a drawn-out conflict serves neither side's interests. Outside actors should press Islamabad and Kabul to de-escalate. ECUADOR The U.S. Southern Command said Tuesday Ecuadorian and U.S. forces had begun operations to curb organised crime in Ecuador. They first went after the Colombian armed group Comandos de la Frontera, which is active along the Colombian border. Ecuador’s military says the operations will continue indefinitely. While details are classified, news reports indicate that the U.S. played an advisory role, without putting troops on the ground. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says such cooperation is not new, but the latest announcement signals deeper U.S. involvement. Security ties have deepened as President Daniel Noboa aligns with the Trump administration’s preference for using military force to combat drug trafficking. 27 February 2026 CHAD - SUDAN Chadian authorities Monday announced the immediate closure of the country’s border with Sudan. The decision followed what N’Djamena described as “repeated incursions” linked to Sudan’s war, after clashes around the Sudanese border town of Tina involving the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and militias aligned with Sudan’s army. Chad said the border would remain closed until further notice, while allowing humanitarian exemptions, including for refugees and returnees, as well as approved aid deliveries. Crisis Group expert Charles Bouëssel says N’Djamena should maintain vital cross-border aid and preserve trade that sustains displaced populations. It should also ensure that security and disarmament operations in the east are conducted with restraint and impartiality to contain intercommunal tensions and prevent Chad from being drawn further into Sudan’s war. CUBA Cuban authorities Wednesday accused ten people on a U.S.-registered speedboat carrying weapons and tactical gear of attempting infiltration of Cuban territory with “terrorist intentions”. Border guards shot four people dead and wounded six others aboard the boat after its occupants allegedly opened fire. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denied any U.S. involvement and said Washington would investigate the facts independently. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says the incident comes amid already high tensions between Havana and Washington, after the U.S. halted fuel imports coming into Cuba, exacerbating a severe energy crisis on the island, in hopes of pushing the Cuban authorities to negotiate an economic and political opening. SYRIA ISIS released an audio statement last weekend denouncing Syria’s interim government and calling for a renewed campaign against its forces. The jihadist group has since claimed responsibility for several attacks on Syrian army personnel in the northern and north-eastern parts of the country. These developments follow last month’s reported mass escape from the al-Hol camp, which held over 20,000 detainees, many of them relatives of suspected ISIS fighters. Some of these people got away as security broke down during an offensive led by Damascus on the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says the closure of the camp compounds an already risky convergence. With the SDF sidelined, U.S. forces withdrawing from Syria and the new government’s security apparatus still finding its feet, ISIS seems to be seeking an opening to resume its insurgency. 20 February 2026 MATERNAL MORTALITY The World Health Organization released a study Tuesday showing that nearly two thirds of maternal deaths worldwide occur in countries wracked by conflict or instability. Crisis raises the risks associated with pregnancy, the report finds, though health services in conflict-affected places are generally already scarce. Some countries, such as Colombia and Ethiopia, have made progress in reducing maternal mortality through partnerships with NGOs with expertise in service provision in remote areas. But now aid cuts have put such programs in jeopardy, says Crisis Group expert Cristal Downing, even as women are dying in childbirth at alarming rates. Donor funds still available should be directed toward bolstering community-based health services, particularly in war zones, through such cost-effective means as midwifery. NIGERIA The Nigerian government announced Tuesday that the U.S. will dispatch 100 additional military personnel to assist in fighting jihadist groups in the northern part of the country. This deployment comes amid deadly attacks that killed 56 people in Niger state last weekend and 34 others in Kebbi state on Wednesday. These raids are part of a broader surge of violence that has claimed over 250 lives across north-central and north-western Nigeria in the past month. Hundreds more people have been abducted. Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi says jihadists and other armed groups are growing stronger in these regions and elsewhere, by exploiting gaps in rural and border security as government forces become increasingly overstretched. The U.S. aid notwithstanding, the government needs to urgently improve its response, including by expediting measures outlined under the “nationwide security emergency” President Bola Tinubu declared last November. U.S. - IRAN Iranian and U.S. delegations convened in Geneva Tuesday for talks about Tehran’s nuclear program, the second round of such negotiations this month. In parallel, the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister met with the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency for technical discussions. Both Iran and the U.S. noted a measure of progress, as did the Omani mediators, even as Washington continues to ramp up its deployment of military assets to the Middle East. But the gaps between the sides are still wide, says Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez, even as regards what a possible agreement would cover. The negotiators have yet to wrestle with matters of substance. Tehran and Washington are aware of the high risks of failure, as well as the costs that fresh hostilities would bring. Yet the pace of diplomacy is lagging as momentum builds for confrontation. 13 February 2026 BANGLADESH The Bangladesh Nationalist Party won a landslide victory Thursday in the country’s first national elections since the 2024 ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, whose Awami League was barred from contesting the vote. A concurrent referendum on the July Charter – a set of reforms negotiated by all the participating parties over the last year – passed by a wide margin. Crisis Group expert Thomas Kean says the turnout and referendum result reflect the credibility of both the election and the reform process in the eyes of most Bangladeshis. The incoming government will face daunting challenges, however, such as getting Bangladesh’s ailing economy back on track and improving security. ERITREA-ETHIOPIA Addis Ababa accused Eritrea of deploying its troops into Ethiopian territory Saturday to conduct joint manoeuvres with Ethiopian rebels along the border. In response, Asmara said Ethiopia had fabricated evidence for this charge, asserting that it has “no appetite for or desire to engage in meaningless acrimony”. Crisis Group expert Magnus Taylor says this latest confrontation comes shortly after renewed clashes between Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s armed wing, which Addis Ababa alleges has formed a secret pact with Eritrea. More fighting could be in the offing if efforts to de-escalate tensions fail. WEST BANK Israel’s security cabinet Sunday approved measures that further cement Israeli control of the occupied West Bank, with the explicit goal of pre-empting the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. The move reflects an Israeli plan not only to annex all the Israeli settlements in the rural West Bank, but also to further limit what is left of nominal Palestinian autonomy and displace Palestinians from more built-up areas. Absent action that conditions trade and aid to Israel on policy changes, says Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein, international support for a two-state solution increasingly rings hollow. The annexation drive also undermines the Trump administration’s twenty-point plan for Gaza. 6 February 2026 GAZA Israel carried out strikes across the Gaza Strip Wednesday, killing at least 24 Palestinians. The Israeli army claimed it was targeting a Hamas commander and responding to fire upon its troops, but civilians accounted for most of the casualties. The death toll among Palestinians in Gaza since the October 2025 ceasefire has now topped 550. Humanitarian needs also remain acute amid aid shortfalls; the Rafah crossing with Egypt has opened, after a long wait, but deliveries are still tightly restricted. Crisis Group expert Mairav Zonszein says the latest violence underscores how tenuous the ceasefire remains despite formally entering its second phase, when the sides are supposed to begin addressing issues of long-term security, governance and reconstruction. Diplomats need to press Israel to release its chokehold on Gaza and push for continued progress on the truce’s terms. PAKISTAN Police backed by soldiers reportedly killed more than 200 Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) fighters in raids throughout Balochistan, a south-western province next to Afghanistan, over the course of this week. The operations followed a rash of BLA attacks on police stations, military installations and residential areas that claimed 50 lives (33 civilians and 17 state personnel) over the weekend. Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of harbouring the BLA high command, which they also say gets financial and logistical assistance from Pakistan’s arch-rival India. Crisis Group Executive Vice President Richard Atwood says the high death toll among the Baloch separatist insurgents shows that authorities planned the raids carefully, with a view to keeping civilians out of the crossfire. But these events are bound to increase tensions between Islamabad and Kabul, which are already high following clashes between Pakistani and Afghan Taliban forces last October, and to further chill relations between Islamabad and New Delhi. U.S. - COLOMBIA Presidents Donald Trump and Gustavo Petro met at the White House Tuesday after months of heated rhetoric prompted by disputes over issues such as migration, counter-narcotics cooperation and the 3 January U.S. raid grabbing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Amid these exchanges, Trump went so far as to suggest that Colombia, too, might be a target of U.S. military action. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says the meeting proved constructive, helping ease the tensions in the bilateral relationship and signalling that the two countries can continue working together to curb drug trafficking. The two presidents also discussed the tariff spat between Colombia and Ecuador, with Trump offering to mediate between these countries’ leaders. Resolving the immediate trade crisis could pave the way for stronger collaboration between Bogotá and Quito in fighting organised crime. 30 January 2026 COLOMBIA - ECUADOR The foreign ministers of Colombia and Ecuador met in Panama after a week in which a trade dispute escalated between the two countries. The standoff began last week, when Ecuador announced a 30 per cent tariff on Colombian imports, blaming Bogotá for insufficient action to stop drug trafficking along the shared border. Colombia retaliated with tariffs on Ecuadorian goods and a suspension of electricity exports. Ecuador then raised the fee for Colombian oil shipped through its pipelines tenfold from about $3 to $30 per barrel. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys González Calanche says the meeting indicates that the two capitals understand the dispute will hurt both economies as well as weaken both states’ ability to confront security challenges on the frontier. Rather than acting in isolation, the two should mount a coordinated cross-border response, which is likely to be more effective in fighting transnational criminal networks. IRAN U.S. President Donald Trump told Iran Wednesday that it risks "major destruction" if it fails to negotiate a nuclear deal with Washington. The ultimatum follows earlier warnings of U.S. intervention over the Islamic Republic's repression of protests. The U.S. has dispatched additional naval assets, airpower and defensive systems to the Middle East. Tehran – along with some of its non-state allies in the region – has threatened retaliation if attacked. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says Iran is unlikely to meet the White House's sweeping demands, which encompass nuclear, missile and regional concessions, raising the likelihood of confrontation at a time when the Islamic Republic already faces increasing diplomatic isolation, mounting economic problems and outrage at its brutal crackdown on dissent. SOUTH SUDAN The South Sudanese army announced Sunday it is launching a major offensive to recapture territory in Jonglei state that has been seized by opposition forces and allied militias since hostilities intensified in December. The UN warned this week that mass troop mobilisation and inflammatory rhetoric from senior commanders have significantly heightened the risk of violence against civilians. Crisis Group expert Daniel Akech says the escalation signals a clear slide toward full-scale war. The rapidly expanding conflict threatens to draw in neighbouring states, including Uganda, and to deepen South Sudan’s dangerous entanglement in the war in Sudan. 23 January 2026 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO M23 rebels withdrew from Uvira, near the Burundian border, over last weekend, ending a tense month in which they controlled the South Kivu town. They had promised to pull out, likely due to U.S. pressure following a December summit in Washington between their main outside backer, the Rwandan president, and his Congolese counterpart. The Congolese army and allied Wazalendo militias re-entered Uvira this week, but in the interim chaos engulfed the town, with widespread looting and abuses against civilians, mainly by the Wazalendo. Of particular concern, says Crisis Group expert Richard Moncrieff, is the mounting ethnic tension in the area. The M23 insurgents, who portray themselves as defenders of the Tutsi people, took Uvira claiming that the Tutsi-related Banyamulenge living in town needed their protection. Primary responsibility for attacks on Banyamulenge residents lies with the Congolese authorities and their allies, but the rebels appear to have exposed these people to predictable retaliation after retreating. Another M23-aligned armed group, the Twiraneho, is involved in fighting around Uvira, also pointing to a pattern of inter-communal violence. GUATEMALA President Bernardo Arévalo declared a 30-day state of emergency Monday after inmates had taken more than 45 guards hostage at three prisons two days earlier. After the authorities regained control of one of the facilities, gang members outside jail killed ten policemen in retaliation. The state of emergency limits citizens' rights and gives state forces special powers such as making arrests without cause. It echoes the iron-fist approaches to public safety pursued by leaders in El Salvador and Ecuador. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says Arévalo, who won the 2024 election touting a progressive reform agenda but has since lost popularity, listened to demands from Guatemalans for a decisive response to an uptick in violent crime. If the measure delivers immediate results, it could help the president’s political standing. UGANDA Tensions simmered this week after the 15 January elections, which saw President Yoweri Museveni win another term with 71.65 per cent of the vote. The leading opposition candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Party (NUP), rejected the result, alleging widespread fraud. He remains in hiding after dodging a police raid – staged for reasons that remain unclear – on his residence. The president's powerful son, army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, said on social media Tuesday Kyagulanyi would be treated as an "outlaw/rebel" if he did not surrender within 48 hours. (He later deleted this and other inflammatory posts.) Meanwhile, authorities charged more than 100 NUP members with involvement in election day violence. An internet blackout has made details of the incidents difficult to verify. The official death toll is twelve, but both Kyagulanyi and Muhoozi have cited higher figures. The government says ten died when its forces were attacked at an opposition legislator's home, a version of events sharply contested by others who were present. Crisis Group expert Meron Elias says the opacity of events, along with Muhoozi’s threats, will likely keep the political temperature high following the polarising vote. 16 January 2026 CUBA The bodies of 32 Cuban soldiers killed during the 3 January U.S. raid in Venezuela arrived in Havana Thursday. Cuba is facing considerable uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday urged its government to “make a deal” or face the consequences, vowing that the U.S. would cut the Venezuelan oil supply to the island nation, which is heavily dependent on these deliveries for its energy needs. Crisis Group expert Renata Segura says Washington appears to be calculating that a deepening economic crisis in Cuba will mobilise the masses to bring about the regime’s collapse. The Cuban regime retains a strong military and solid ties to Russia and China, however, and previously has not hesitated to crush dissent. GREENLAND Several European NATO members have deployed troops to Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, to beef up infrastructure and carry out joint military exercises after U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly stated that the U.S. intends to acquire the island, by force if necessary. Wednesday’s meeting among the U.S., Greenland and Denmark in Washington failed to resolve “fundamental disagreement” on Greenland’s future, according to the Danish foreign minister. With Europe already buffeted by Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, says Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker, this crisis will have dire implications for the future of NATO and European security writ large if the U.S. does not back down. SYRIA Thousands demonstrated in the north east Tuesday against government forces’ expulsion of Kurdish fighters from Aleppo. Since the last Kurdish fighters left the city Sunday, fighting shifted eastward, raising the risk of sustained confrontation. In early January, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clashed with the Syrian army in Aleppo as negotiations to integrate Syria’s north east under central government control stalled. Crisis Group expert Nanar Hawach says Damascus cannot take the whole region militarily, but it will likely keep applying pressure on the SDF. The U.S., which supports both sides, has kept a ceiling on escalation thus far and should use its leverage to bring the parties back to the negotiating table. 9 January 2026 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Provisional results show that President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has secured a third term after general elections on 28 December. Two challengers – Anicet-Georges Dologuélé and Henri-Marie Dondra – have called for annulling the vote, alleging fraud, while the main opposition coalition boycotted the ballot, citing an uneven playing field. The disputed poll coincided with renewed violence in the south east. Fighters linked to the Azandé Ani Kpi Gbé (AAKG) – a Zandé self-defence militia – disrupted voting in Bambouti. Clashes then spread, including AAKG attacks on government forces around Zémio in early January. The AAKG was initially aligned with Bangui but later broke with the government after its rapprochement with a Fulani-led armed group that the militia accuses of encroaching on Zandé land. Crisis Group expert Fulbert Ngodji says the AAKG may be digging in to battle the state. Stability during Touadéra’s new term will hinge on promoting intercommunal dialogue in the south east, better integrating militias under army command, and reducing regional isolation through development and security reform. IRAN The falling value of Iran's national currency sparked demonstrations that since late December have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest. The government has altered its subsidy policies but done little to dampen wider grievances. At least three dozen people have been killed as state forces crack down on protests that show little sign of slowing down. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says the Islamic Republic faces a major dilemma: it is neither willing nor able to adopt reforms that could meet expectations for political, social and economic change and on notice from U.S. President Donald Trump that outside intervention is possible if its repression intensifies. LEBANON Lebanon said it had passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah, but the country’s fragile ceasefire deal with Israel remains imperilled. On Thursday, the Lebanese army announced that it had brought all weapons under state control in the southern area between the Litani River and the Israeli border. Israel immediately disputed the army’s assertion, saying Hizbollah retains military infrastructure in that region. Crisis Group expert David Wood says Beirut faces dangers ahead in any case. The army must soon move toward disarming Hizbollah north of the Litani, where the group refuses to comply – driving up the risk of internal discord. Yet Lebanese leaders also know that Israel will almost certainly respond to any hold-ups in disarming Hizbollah with severe military escalations, inflicting still more pain on their embattled country. Previous On Our Radar Editions On Our Radar 2025 On Our Radar 2024 On Our Radar 2023 On Our Radar 2022 Related Tags More for you Commentary / Global 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2026 Also available in Français , Español Special Coverage / Global On Our Radar 2025

Source: International Crisis Group · July 25, 2026 at 11:33 PM · AI-assisted report

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