Malaysia’s economic growth could slow below 3% under Strait of Malacca disruption scenario, says Apex Securities
Malaysia’s GDP growth could decline to as low as 2.5% in 2027 if shipping through the Strait of Malacca were severely disrupted, Apex Securities said.
Source: The Edge Malaysia · July 31, 2026 at 3:02 AM · AI-assisted report
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KUALA LUMPUR, 31 JULY 2026 —
Malaysia’s GDP growth could decline to as low as 2.5% in 2027 if shipping through the Strait of Malacca were severely disrupted, Apex Securities said.
Market Impact
The research house maintained its baseline 2027 GDP growth forecast at 4.5% but warned growth could fall to between 2.5% and 3.1% under a severe scenario involving a near-complete closure of the strait. Under a mild disruption affecting up to 50% of shipping traffic, GDP growth could moderate to around 3.5%, while a moderate disruption of 51% to 75% could see growth slow to between 3.1% and 3.5%.
Apex Securities said the strait handles about 48% of Malaysia’s total trade in 2025. It estimated that up to 36.8% of the country’s trade could be directly affected if the waterway were shut, forcing shippers to use longer, costlier routes through the Indonesian archipelago. Export-focused sectors such as electronics and electrical, manufacturing and commodities would bear the brunt, it added.
The research house also highlighted inflation risks linked to the strait’s role in global oil transit. It said the waterway carries 23.2 million barrels of crude and petroleum products daily, or 29.1% of global seaborne oil trade and 22.2% of global supply in the first half of 2025.
If Brent crude averaged US$95 per barrel or higher, Malaysia’s headline inflation could exceed 3%, it estimated, assuming the government maintained partial fuel subsidies while passing on additional increases to consumers.
Regional governments have moved to reassure markets. In April, Indonesia’s Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa proposed tolls for ships using the strait before walking back the idea. Singapore and Indonesia jointly control the waterway with Malaysia, and both have since pledged to keep it open and free.
Apex Securities said a prolonged disruption remained a tail-risk scenario rather than its base case. It noted the strait is one of the world’s most strategically important shipping lanes and that regional governments and the international community would have strong incentives to restore maritime traffic quickly.