AI-driven hiring slowdown widens Canada labour gap
Canadian workers in jobs most exposed to artificial intelligence face an unemployment risk 2.8 percentage points higher than those in less-exposed roles, up from 1.9 points a decade ago, Bank of Canada research shows.
Source: Bank of Canada · August 20, 2026 at 6:47 PM · AI-assisted report
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KUALA LUMPUR, 21 AUGUST 2026 —
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Canadian workers in jobs most exposed to artificial intelligence face an unemployment risk 2.8 percentage points higher than those in less-exposed roles, up from 1.9 points a decade ago, Bank of Canada research shows.
Market Impact
The central bank’s analysis, based on Statistics Canada labour-force data and its Generated Index of Occupational Exposure, links the widening gap to slower hiring rather than higher layoffs. The differential between high- and low-AI-exposure occupations stood at 1.9 percentage points during 2015-19 and has since increased to 2.8 points.
“These results should be seen only as early signals,” the authors wrote. “They do not show that AI alone has led to differences in employment outcomes since 2019.” They point to the pandemic, record immigration and shifts in global trade as additional forces shaping the labour market.
GENOE scores indicate roughly one-third of Canadian jobs could undergo significant changes from today’s AI capabilities. The index is highest for routine, information-processing roles such as receptionists and accountants. Occupations demanding judgment, physical dexterity or specialised human skills—health care and skilled trades—register the lowest exposure.
Young workers face greater exposure than older cohorts. Customer-service and sales-support roles, which employ many younger Canadians, fall into the moderate-to-high exposure band. The Bank cautions this elevated risk is an emerging pattern rather than definitive proof of AI-driven displacement.
The study tracks unemployment risk, job-finding rates and job-separation rates. Since 2019, the job-finding rate for highly exposed workers has declined relative to their less-exposed peers, while separation rates have remained broadly similar. “The post-2019 rise in unemployment risk shows up mainly in hiring difficulties,” the authors said.
Researchers stress the findings are preliminary and subject to revision as AI capabilities evolve. They note no occupation is entirely insulated from technological change but emphasise jobs are more likely to be redefined than eliminated outright.
The paper is part of the Bank’s Sparks series, which explores topics relevant to monetary policy and the economy. The views expressed are those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada positions.
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