Citi: Vietnam’s economy remains resilient in 2026

KUALA LUMPUR, 6 AUGUST 2026 —

Citi: Vietnam’s Economy Poised for Resilience Through 2026 Despite Global Headwinds

Vietnam’s economy is projected to sustain strong growth momentum into the second half of 2026, with Citi economists forecasting continued resilience amid external challenges. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated to 8.18% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, up from 7.63% in the same period of 2025, despite disruptions from an oil-price shock that weighed on construction, manufacturing, and certain services sectors. Citi analysts note that Vietnam’s performance remains comparatively robust relative to several ASEAN peers, underpinned by structural advantages in industrial expansion and supply chain integration.

Manufacturing activity has remained broadly supportive of growth. Vietnam’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), adjusted for seasonal factors, stayed above the 50-point expansion threshold through May, while new export orders outperformed those in multiple regional economies. Electronics continue to drive export performance, with monthly electronics exports to the United States nearly doubling compared to late 2024 levels. Vietnam’s share of U.S. imports for computers and telecommunications equipment has also risen significantly in recent years, though these gains appear to be stabilizing as demand for personal computers, wireless devices, and select consumer electronics softens in 2026.

Sectors such as textiles and footwear may face increased headwinds due to slowing U.S. discretionary consumption, while demand tied to artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, and communications infrastructure is expected to bolster parts of the electronics and semiconductor supply chain. “Vietnam continues to be one of the region’s leading growth economies, supported by industrial expansion, AI-related manufacturing, sustained foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, infrastructure investment, and tourism recovery,” said Thai Nguyet Minh, Citi Vietnam’s head of Markets. “While external headwinds have intensified, these structural drivers should help the economy navigate near-term volatility and reinforce long-term growth prospects.”

Inflation remains a key risk, averaging 4.38% in the first six months of 2026 and reaching 4.69% year-on-year. Domestic petrol prices in May were approximately 25% higher than in February, though fiscal measures and fuel-price stabilization mechanisms mitigated the impact. The Vietnamese dong (VND) has maintained relative stability despite a weaker trade balance, supported by liquidity injections from the State Bank of Vietnam through open-market operations. Vietnam retains strong policy buffers and solid medium-term fundamentals, according to Citi.

Citi Vietnam has been recognized for its contributions to sustainable development, receiving the Best Sustainable Bank in Vietnam award at the FinanceAsia Awards 2026 in Hong Kong on June 25. The bank also marked Global Community Day 2026 with initiatives supporting local schools in Phu Tho and Lam Dong provinces. Additionally, Citi Vietnam was named Best International Bank in Vietnam at the Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2026, highlighting its corporate client services through global networks, institutional expertise, and digital banking capabilities. The bank has also hosted AI-focused upskilling programs to prepare employees for an increasingly AI-driven work environment.

Analysts expect Vietnam’s growth trajectory to remain resilient through 2026, supported by resilient manufacturing, public investment, and tourism recovery. However, risks from energy prices and softer global consumption persist. Citi emphasizes that Vietnam’s expanding role in regional and global supply chains, alongside sustained FDI inflows, will continue to underpin its long-term economic outlook.

Related: State Bank of Vietnam