What happens now that the government has regained control of Mekele?

KUALA LUMPUR, 4 OCTOBER 2026 —

Ethiopia’s federal government and allied forces have regained control of Mekele, Tigray’s capital, ending over six years of conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that has devastated the northern region, according to ACLED’s Ethiopia Analyst, Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru.

The recapture of Mekele marks a turning point in Ethiopia’s protracted civil war, which has left Tigray in ruins and displaced millions. The federal government’s victory—achieved through a combination of military pressure and political maneuvering—could now shift the focus toward rebuilding the region under a new administrative framework, though lingering insurgency risks and deep-seated grievances may complicate stability.

The conflict in Tigray began on 3 November 2020, when the TPLF launched a preemptive strike against the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) North Command, triggering a full-scale war. Within weeks, the federal government retook Mekele by 28 November 2020, but the TPLF quickly reorganized, forming the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) by early 2022. Instead of conventional warfare, the TDF adopted a guerrilla strategy, targeting government officials, aid convoys, and security forces in hit-and-run attacks.

This insurgency forced the ENDF to withdraw from Tigray on 28 June 2021, after the TPLF reclaimed Mekele in a swift counteroffensive.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has previously described the conflict as a "difficult and tiresome" insurgency, acknowledging the challenges of maintaining governance and security in Tigray. The federal government’s latest advance suggests a shift in strategy, with plans to delegate regional administration to the Tigray Council for Peace and Change, established on 17 May 2026 in Addis Ababa.

The council, comprising former TPLF negotiators—including General Tsadkan Gebretensae, Getachew Reda, General Goesh Gebre, General Gebregiorgis Abate (Wedi Abate), and General Kebede Fikadu—alongside seven political parties (Baytona, Arena Tigray, Tinsae 70 Enderta, and Simret), former regional leaders, and military veterans, aims to dismantle remaining TPLF factions and restore stability.

Security in Tigray will now be overseen by the Tigray Peace Force, a newly formed alliance of former TDF members who have switched sides to fight against the remaining insurgents. The council’s approach hinges on local buy-in, leveraging potential "conflict fatigue" among TDF fighters and Tigrayan civilians to reduce the risk of renewed large-scale violence. However, the success of this strategy remains uncertain, as deep-seated ethnic and political divisions persist.

For Malaysia and regional investors, Ethiopia’s conflict has had indirect but significant economic repercussions, particularly in trade and humanitarian aid. The war disrupted Ethiopia’s agricultural exports, including coffee—a key commodity for Malaysian importers—and strained logistics for regional supply chains. The recapture of Mekele could stabilize some trade routes, but reconstruction costs and ongoing security concerns may delay a full economic recovery in Tigray.

The federal government’s next steps will likely focus on consolidating control, disarming remaining TDF factions, and restoring basic services. The Tigray Council for Peace and Change’s ability to unite disparate political and military groups will be critical in determining whether lasting peace can be achieved. With international attention on Ethiopia’s broader political reforms, the outcome in Tigray will also influence investor confidence in the country’s long-term stability.