El Niño cuts hydropower output to 20 MW at First Gen plant
El Niño has slashed output at First Gen Corp.’s Pantabangan hydropower plant to just 20 MW, down from its 120 MW design capacity, company officials said.
Source: BusinessWorld Philippines · August 16, 2026 at 7:03 PM · AI-assisted report
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KUALA LUMPUR, 17 AUGUST 2026 —
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El Niño has slashed output at First Gen Corp.’s Pantabangan hydropower plant to just 20 MW, down from its 120 MW design capacity, company officials said.
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Dennis Michael P. Gonzales, First Gen senior vice-president, told BusinessWorld the plant’s reservoir level has fallen so low that every one-metre drop in water height cuts generation by 3 MW. By the end of July the facility was running at one-sixth of its capacity and risked a near-total shutdown, he said.
“Very close to completely shutting down the plant entirely,” Mr. Gonzales said. The reservoir, which also supplies irrigation water to Central Luzon’s rice fields, has dropped to a level that will be difficult to recover before the next cropping season, he added.
Hydropower facilities across the Philippines are feeling the El Niño pinch. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration declared El Niño in June and expects it to intensify into a “Super El Niño” by late 2026, lasting into 2027.
Repower Energy Development Corp. president Eric Y. Roxas said El Niño reduces his company’s run-of-river plants to 35-40% of normal efficiency. The lower water volume, however, allows REDC to carry out maintenance on weirs, waterways and dredging systems without weather delays.
“During this period, the company takes advantage of the lower water volume to do our maintenance and repairs,” Mr. Roxas said. REDC operates nine hydropower plants totalling 35 MW and has six more under development.
Hydropower accounts for about 12% of the Philippines’ installed generation capacity, according to the Department of Energy. First Gen’s experience shows how multi-purpose reservoirs like Pantabangan face a lagged impact: heavy water releases earlier this year to support irrigation have left the reservoir critically low, and the full effect of this year’s El Niño will be felt in 2024, Mr. Gonzales said.
“Even if the El Niño is encountered this year, the effect will be more felt next year,” he said. The Luzon grid’s 2,500 MW of hydropower capacity and Mindanao’s 1,200 MW are large enough that El Niño can trigger grid contingency alerts, he added. Yellow alerts were issued in June and July because low inflows forced derating.
In Mindanao, the National Power Corp. is racing to complete maintenance on the Agus-Pulangi complex so it can return to full 982 MW output by August 20. Only about 700 MW is operating now because of aging infrastructure, NPC President and CEO Jericho Jonas B. Nograles said.
“Water has many competing uses, and with the possibility of a Super El Niño, energy requirements must always be balanced against water security and the needs of the communities,” he told reporters.
The Agus-Pulangi system straddles Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur and Bukidnon and relies on run-of-river plants whose output falls immediately when river levels drop. Unlike large reservoirs, these facilities have little stored water to cushion drought. NPC’s maintenance push aims to restore capacity before El Niño tightens its grip.
Analysts warn that prolonged drought could force utilities to rely more on fossil-fuel plants, raising system costs and carbon emissions. The Department of Energy has not yet provided an updated estimate of how much hydropower’s share of total generation may fall during the dry spell.
For now, plant operators are balancing repairs, irrigation releases and future water security. REDC’s Mr. Roxas said the dry season also speeds construction of new projects because bad weather no longer interrupts work.
“It becomes advantageous to us on the construction of our projects in development, with minimal delays due to weather,” he said.
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