indonesian stocks rise 0.33 % as investors await bank indonesia rate decision

JAKARTA, 23 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

The Jakarta Composite Index opened at 6,297, up 0.33 % from the previous close, and traded between 6,297 and 6,313 in early trade.

Phintraco Sekuritas projected that the JCI would test the 6,186‑6,200 range while traders waited for the outcome of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) scheduled for Tuesday. The brokerage expected BI to keep its benchmark interest rate, the BI Rate, at 5.75 %.

The Federal Reserve had recently lifted its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00 %, narrowing the spread between the BI Rate and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to 1.75 percentage points from 2.00 percentage points. Phintraco Sekuritas noted that, although the spread has narrowed, it remains wider than the 0.75‑1.25 percentage‑point average recorded over the past three years.

The brokerage said the wider differential this year was intended to keep an attractive interest‑rate differential for foreign investors while strengthening rupiah stability.

Phintraco Sekuritas warned that BI might consider another rate hike if the rupiah continued to weaken or if the Fed resumed tightening. However, the central bank was also expected to continue supporting economic growth, limiting the likelihood of aggressive monetary tightening. The brokerage added that further rate increases could be considered if the rupiah depreciated rapidly or if inflation rose above BI’s target.

“Inflationary pressures are also expected to ease again as global oil prices correct. This could give BI room to avoid being too aggressive with its interest rate policy,” the brokerage said.

Beyond the rate decision, investors were also awaiting August 2026 credit growth data, projected to accelerate to 15 % year‑on‑year. Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia described global market sentiment as mixed, noting that investors remained focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy direction, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and oil price movements.

Statements from Fed officials highlighted concerns over persistent inflationary pressures, keeping investors attentive to the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Pluang’s research team argued that long‑term gold prices were driven more by expectations of fiscal deficits than by interest‑rate levels themselves, with monetary policy acting as a transmission channel rather than the primary driver.

IMF data showed that the U.S. fiscal deficit was projected to remain above 7 % in the coming years, while the global debt‑to‑GDP ratio had climbed from 82.1 % in 2019 to 95.3 % this year. The U.S. debt‑to‑GDP ratio was projected to reach 142 % by 2031. Pluang also pointed to the U.S. Treasury Department’s decision to triple buybacks of long‑term bonds to curb yields, describing the move as a bullish signal for gold.

The brokerage said the approach would require the government to refinance through short‑term debt, which is more vulnerable to market volatility.

“We maintain our gold price target of $5,200 over the next 12 months, viewing the Fed’s hawkish pressure today as a short‑term consolidation within a long‑term structural trend that remains intact,” Pluang said.

In regional trading, South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.10 %, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.87 % and Shanghai’s SSE Composite Index slipped 0.24 %.

For Malaysian investors, the stability of the rupiah and the likely rate hold by Bank Indonesia suggest a period of relative calm in Southeast Asian monetary policy. The wider interest‑rate differential with the U.S. Fed may continue to attract foreign capital, potentially supporting cross‑border investment flows into Malaysian equities and bonds.

Related: Bank Indonesia · Jakarta