After a decade, the UN’s Antonio Guterres is stepping down. His legacy will be mixed, at best Simon Adams, Murdoch University

NEW YORK, 1 OCTOBER 2026 —

António Guterres will step down as United Nations secretary‑general at the end of 2026 after a decade in office, delivering his farewell address to the General Assembly last week in New York.

Guterres’ tenure was marked by a mixture of diplomatic breakthroughs and deep structural challenges. He secured the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative that opened a corridor for Ukrainian grain exports to Russia‑blocked ports, promoted the appointment of more women to senior UN posts, and pushed climate diplomacy and a global debate on the promises and perils of artificial intelligence.

At the same time, he presided over crippling budget shortfalls after the United States withheld US$4 billion in dues, launched the “UN80” reform programme in March 2025 to streamline the agency for its 80th anniversary, and oversaw large‑scale staff reductions that, according to the source, have left “hundreds of UN staff” without jobs and contributed to “millions of people around the world … going hungry” because of humanitarian funding gaps.

The reforms introduced under UN80 have been described as “more about bureaucratic downsizing than refocusing the organisation’s moral vision.” While the restructuring aimed to modernise a “cautious and cumbersome” institution, critics argue that the cuts have weakened the UN’s capacity to respond to crises.

The source notes that the number of people displaced worldwide rose from 65.6 million in 2016 to 118 million in 2026, including 45 million children living as refugees or in makeshift shelters. Although Guterres was not directly responsible for the increase, the source suggests his “low‑key” approach to diplomatic engagement contrasted with the more outspoken styles of some predecessors.

Guterres entered the secretary‑generalship after a career that included serving as Portugal’s prime minister from 1995 to 2002 and as UN high commissioner for refugees from 2005 to 2015. His candidacy was built on a reputation as a “energetic moderniser” of the UN refugee agency, which under his watch underwent “profound structural change” in response to emergencies in Syria and elsewhere.

He was noted for visiting refugee camps and for being an “effective, if cautious, advocate for the world’s most vulnerable populations.”

Nevertheless, the source highlights several areas where Guterres’ record is viewed as lacking. Two permanent members of the Security Council – Russia and the United States – launched wars that the source says violated the UN Charter.

The secretary‑general’s failure to travel to crisis hotspots such as Myanmar, Sudan and other major conflict zones is cited by critics as a missed opportunity to send a “powerful political signal.” The source also points to the broader geopolitical environment, noting that Guterres served during the administrations of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, each of whom “sidelined him and the UN” in their own ways.

Historical comparisons further underscore the challenges of Guterres’ era. Dag Hammarskjöld, the UN’s second secretary‑general, established peacekeeping operations during the Cold War before dying in a 1961 plane crash while negotiating an end to a secessionist war in the Congo. Ban Ki‑moon, Guterres’ immediate predecessor, launched a “human rights upfront” agenda that urged field staff to speak out for those whose lives depended on their protection.

The source implies that Guterres’ initiatives, while notable, did not match the transformative impact of those earlier leaders.

The source also flags emerging global threats that have intensified the UN’s workload.

Tech experts warn that artificial intelligence could “wipe out humanity,” while accelerating climate change presents an “existential threat.” Guterres injected a “global perspective into debates about the threat and promise posed by AI,” yet the organisation remains constrained by limited resources and the veto power of the five permanent Security Council members – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States – whose growing friction has “exacerbated this parlous situation.”

As Guterres prepares to leave the 38th floor of the UN headquarters on 31 December, the source concludes that the institution will be “more fragile than at any time since the fall of the Berlin Wall.” It warns that the next secretary‑general must bridge “the deadly gap between promise and performance” if the UN is to survive the mounting challenges of war, displacement, climate change and technological disruption.

The final remarks in the source come from a senior civil‑society participant who recalled a 2018 meeting with Guterres at UN headquarters. The participant said the secretary‑general would be judged “by his ability to protect civilians and halt atrocities that shock the conscience of humanity,” and predicted that “the verdict of history will be harsh regarding Guterres’ failure in this area.”

Guterres’ departure therefore closes a chapter defined by both diplomatic achievements and profound structural and geopolitical constraints, leaving the United Nations at a crossroads as it confronts an unprecedented number of conflicts and a rapidly changing global landscape.