china‑us export orders rise ahead of trump‑xi summit, data shows

BEIJING, 25 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

American firms boosted orders for Chinese goods in the weeks before President Donald Trump’s meeting with President Xi Jinping, a China Beige Book survey showed.

The gauge of U.S.‑bound orders jumped to 13 in September, up from –12 a year earlier and 3 in August, indicating a surprise surge as “China’s relative tariff position improved,” the research firm said.

The Beige Book, which surveyed 1,295 Chinese companies between Sept. 1‑22, calculates the gauge by subtracting the share of firms reporting a decline from those reporting an increase. The rise to 13 marks the first positive reading for the year and suggests firms are positioning for a more stable bilateral trade environment ahead of the summit.

Despite the uptick, overall Chinese domestic and export orders remain below last year’s levels, and new orders fell from August, the report added. The contrast highlights that the U.S.‑focused rebound is a narrow slice of broader demand weakness.

The surge coincides with expectations that the summit will extend the existing trade truce. Both sides have agreed to prolong the two‑month pause on higher tariffs, rare‑earth export controls and port fee increases until January. The United States is also expected to postpone a threatened tariff round on industrial overcapacity, easing short‑term pressure on Chinese exporters.

Barclays estimates the effective U.S. tariff on Chinese goods at roughly 23 percent, still higher than the average levy on other major partners. Nonetheless, official data show China’s ports recorded their busiest week on record in the run‑up to the meeting, reinforcing the view that trade flows are picking up on optimism of a further thaw.

Eurasia Group raised its probability of sustained stability to the highest level since Trump’s return to the White House after the truce extension. “Neither government has an interest in renewed escalation,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. He expects Washington to push for faster rare‑earth licence approvals and greater U.S. agricultural purchases, while Beijing will seek to keep the pause on arms sales to Taiwan in place.

For Malaysian exporters and investors, the data signal that U.S. demand for Chinese inputs may rebound modestly in the near term, potentially easing supply‑chain constraints for Malaysian manufacturers that source components from China. However, the overall weakness in Chinese orders suggests that broader regional demand remains fragile, keeping growth outlooks for Malaysia’s export‑oriented sectors cautious.