US-China relations: Why tensions aren’t destined to escalate

KUALA LUMPUR, 29 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

For a decade, foreign‑policy analysts have framed the prospect of war between the United States and China as almost inevitable, invoking the “Thucydides Trap” to describe the supposed destiny of a rising power confronting an established one.

The concept, named after the ancient Greek historian, suggests that such power transitions “rarely end well,” a phrase that has become commonplace in commentaries on U.S.–China relations.

The trap theory has been widely cited in discussions of bilateral frictions, with commentators often treating conflict as a foregone conclusion regardless of the specific issues at stake. The metaphor likens the clash to two articulated lorries attempting to merge into a single lane, a scenario that “rarely ends well,” according to the description in the South China Morning Post article published on 29 September 2026.

The article notes that the term’s popularity stems from its fashionable appeal and its capacity to simplify complex strategic dynamics into a deterministic narrative. By casting tensions as inevitable, the Thucydides Trap narrative can shape policy debates and public perception, influencing how analysts and officials interpret diplomatic, economic, and security developments between the two powers.

The continued reliance on the Thucydides Trap framework matters for Malaysia and the broader region because it frames the United States‑China relationship in terms of unavoidable conflict, potentially affecting regional trade, investment and security calculations. The South China Morning Post piece underscores that the prevailing narrative may overlook alternative pathways for cooperation, leaving policymakers to grapple with a view of bilateral relations that presumes confrontation as the default outcome.