Oil settles at $89.08 per barrel as summer demand fades

KUALA LUMPUR, 29 JULY 2026 —

Brent crude oil settled at $89.08 per barrel at 7:15 a.m. Eastern Time on July 28, 2026, down $1.35 from the previous morning’s level.

Citi analysts said no fresh supply disruption or OPEC policy signal triggered the dip, according to a note circulated this morning. OPEC+ compliance data for June is due from secondary sources on July 31; the group’s overall conformity with production cuts slipped to 89% in May from 94% in April, OPEC said.

Tight balances in key Atlantic Basin refining centres underpin Brent. Refinery maintenance in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe has shaved roughly 1.8 million barrels a day of crude runs from seasonal peaks, S&P Global Commodity Insights data show. Against that backdrop, Brent’s premium to West Texas Intermediate widened slightly to $3.20 per barrel. The WTI front-month contract for September delivery was quoted at $85.88 per barrel in New York trading.

The broader energy complex showed mixed signals. Henry Hub natural gas futures slipped 2.3 cents to $2.87 per mmBtu as mild weather forecasts weighed on power demand expectations. European gas benchmark TTF rose 1.4% to €34.60 per MWh on concern over Norwegian maintenance schedules.

Gasoline prices at the pump follow crude with a lag. U.S. pump prices averaged $3.49 per gallon on July 27, up 4 cents from the prior week but still 22 cents below the year-ago level, according to AAA. Analysts cite the “rockets and feathers” pattern: retail prices rose quickly when crude jumped earlier this month but are easing more slowly as wholesale costs retreat, typically over one to two weeks.

On policy, the U.S. Department of Energy left its Strategic Petroleum Reserve draw schedule unchanged after last week’s sale of 1.1 million barrels. The release was part of the congressionally mandated 2025–26 programme to fund government priorities rather than an emergency response. The SPR now holds about 347 million barrels, down from 367 million a year ago, according to ClearView Energy Partners.

Traders are watching two catalysts next week. The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly inventory report on July 30, followed by official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on August 1. API’s preliminary estimate showed a crude build of 2.4 million barrels for the week ended July 26.

Oil watchers also note that the Brent contract’s prompt-month expiry on August 12 is approaching. Open interest in the August Brent futures contract has fallen 14% over the past five sessions as volumes migrate to the September strip, LSEG data show.

Elsewhere in commodities, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange were up 0.7% at $9,425 a tonne as Chinese smelters restarted operations after seasonal maintenance. The metal has gained 8% since mid-June on bets that Beijing’s property-market rescue measures will revive construction activity.

For motorists, the near-term outlook points to stable or slightly lower pump prices. AAA expects national average gasoline to decline another 3–5 cents over the next two weeks if crude remains in the mid-$80s per barrel range and refiners keep run rates steady.

Longer term, the interplay between U.S. shale output and OPEC+ policy will dictate whether Brent drifts back toward $80 or pushes toward $95 by year-end. U.S. shale operators added 12 rigs last week, the first increase in six weeks, Baker Hughes said.

The market remains sensitive to geopolitical headlines. Risks include resumed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, fresh U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan crude, or a widening conflict in Eastern Europe that could disrupt Black Sea shipments.