Oil climbs on Middle East tensions, tanker attacks push Brent to $105.48 a barrel

MIDDLE EAST (SAUDI ARABIA, YEMEN, OMAN, STRAIT OF HORMUZ, GULF OF MEXICO), 12 OCTOBER 2026 —

Oil Prices Surge to $105.48 as Middle East Tensions and Tanker Attacks Disrupt Regional Supply

Oil prices climbed to $105.48 a barrel on October 12, 2026, as escalating conflict in the Middle East and a wave of tanker attacks heightened fears of supply disruptions from the region. The surge in Brent crude futures—up 0.73% from the previous day—reflects growing geopolitical risks, including Houthi missile strikes on Saudi Arabia and attacks on shipping lanes critical to global oil flows.

The escalation follows weeks of heightened tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed militias, with the Houthis intensifying their campaign against Saudi infrastructure. The attacks, combined with renewed threats to maritime trade routes, have sent shockwaves through energy markets, particularly as regional crude exports had begun to recover in September. Analysts warn that sustained disruptions could prolong volatility, though longer-term supply adaptations may eventually temper prices.

Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for a strike on Riyadh’s international airport on October 10, which killed 13 people and wounded over 300, according to Saudi authorities. The Houthis also carried out another attack on the airport on October 11, further escalating the crisis. The United States, under President Donald Trump, signaled potential military involvement, stating on October 10 that Washington was considering joining Saudi-led airstrikes against the Houthis.

Trump’s announcement came amid broader regional tensions, including a February 2026 U.S.-led military campaign against Iran, which has spilled over into Saudi Arabia.

The conflict’s spillover effects extended to energy diplomacy. On October 11, Trump unexpectedly announced a ceasefire agreement on energy exports between Ukraine and Russia, following a separate diesel supply deal with Moscow on October 9. While the ceasefire may ease some market concerns, its timing and implications remain unclear amid ongoing hostilities.

Maritime security concerns intensified over the October 10–11 weekend, with two tankers targeted. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that one vessel was struck by a drone near Sohar anchorage in Oman, while another was damaged by an unidentified projectile as it transited the Strait of Hormuz. October has already seen multiple attacks on tankers in the strait, a chokepoint for nearly a third of global seaborne oil trade.

The incidents threaten to reverse the modest recovery in Middle East crude exports observed in September, as traders reassess risks in the region.

Goldman Sachs adjusted its price outlook for December, raising its Brent crude forecast to $90 a barrel from $85, citing persistent geopolitical risks. Analysts led by Daan Struyven noted that while continued supply adaptations could eventually lower prices, "potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk," with a risk premium estimated at over $20 a barrel.

The bank also forecast WTI prices to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027, attributing the gap between WTI and Brent to elevated shipping costs between the U.S. and Europe.

In parallel, major energy firms in the Gulf of Mexico are preparing for operational disruptions. Shell, Chevron, and BP announced plans to redeploy personnel and restore production at their offshore platforms following Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall early on October 10. The storm’s impact on U.S. oil production remains under assessment, though early reports suggest localized delays in drilling and extraction activities.

The immediate market reaction underscores the dual pressures facing oil markets: short-term geopolitical shocks driving prices higher, and structural supply adjustments that may temper gains over time. With no immediate resolution in sight for the Middle East conflict or the Strait of Hormuz threats, traders and producers will continue monitoring developments closely.

The next critical period will hinge on whether the Houthi campaign intensifies, whether additional maritime incidents occur, and how swiftly regional supply chains adapt to the new risks.

Related: Donald Trump