Oil prices fall as traders unwind Hormuz deal bets

KUALA LUMPUR, 10 AUGUST 2026 —

September WTI crude oil futures dropped to $74.24 intraday on Friday, pulling the weekly loss to 10.05% at $78.08 after the market first bet on a Strait of Hormuz breakthrough then reversed once no extra barrels arrived.

The contract opened at $80.10, climbed to an intraday high of $82.33, and then sold off to the session low as Gulf export volumes stayed well below pre-war levels. The early advance reflected reports of progress in talks between Iran, Oman and the United States that traders read as a path to reopen Hormuz and release more crude. Once the barrels did not materialise, the risk premium was pulled from WTI in a single session.

Iran’s demand for influence over ships entering the Gulf and visibility over those leaving has not translated into unrestricted shipping, refiners said. Physical export data remain weak: Gulf crude and condensate loadings are still running materially below pre-war averages, leaving the market without the concrete evidence it needs to sustain lower prices.

The Red Sea route added another layer of concern after unverified Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi tankers near Yanbu and in the Gulf of Aden. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the strikes, but the timing reinforced caution among sellers. The Red Sea had become the region’s fallback outlet while Hormuz remained constrained; sustained pressure on that route would further tighten options for moving crude out of the Gulf.

U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels in the week ended July 31, according to the Energy Information Administration, versus expectations for a draw. Imports increased, refinery runs eased and Cushing stocks jumped, giving the bearish camp additional ammunition. Gasoline inventories fell 2.9 million barrels and distillate stocks posted a larger-than-expected draw of 3.1 million barrels, but diesel remains the tightest part of the petroleum complex.

Russian refinery disruptions and lower Middle East product exports continue to underpin distillate balances even as emergency SPR releases soften the broader supply shock.

Technical signals show September WTI is positioned for a weekly close below the critical retracement zone at $75.40–$70.70, with additional support at the 52-week moving average of $69.35 and a main bottom at $67.12. The next upside target is the short-term retracement zone at $81.21–$84.53, followed by the May and July swing tops at $93.50 and $95.30.

A sustained move above $80.31 would extend gains into the retracement area; a break under $80.31 would bring the $75.40–$70.70 band into focus.

The weekly loss is now 10.05% because the market sold the best-case outcome — an imminent Hormuz deal — before any barrels moved. The trade has now switched to “sell the rally, buy the dip” mode, typical of a headline-driven market. Until Gulf exports recover to pre-war levels and tanker schedules return to normal, the physical supply system remains below capacity.

Related: Strait of Hormuz