Spotlight back on Gas Malaysia as crude price whipsaws
Gas Malaysia Bhd’s shares came under scrutiny as Brent crude’s price swings revived questions over the natural gas distributor’s earnings outlook.
Source: theedgemalaysia.com · August 9, 2026 at 4:14 PM · AI-assisted report
Corroborated
KUALA LUMPUR, 10 AUGUST 2026 —
Gas Malaysia Bhd’s shares came under scrutiny as Brent crude’s price swings revived questions over the natural gas distributor’s earnings outlook.
Market Impact
The Malaysian supplier’s costs track Brent prices with an eight-month lag, so the crude rally that began in March will first show up in its fourth-quarter 2026 results, Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) said in a Friday note.
“Earnings from the crude oil price rally in March 2026 would feed into Gas Malaysia’s 4Q2026 financials,” Maybank IB said.
The bank now expects Gas Malaysia’s second-quarter 2026 gas costs to fall 17% year-on-year and 3% versus the first quarter. It forecasts domestic gas prices to average 2% lower in 2026, with prices bottoming in the second and third quarters.
Maybank IB maintained its ‘hold’ rating and cut its discounted cash flow target price to RM5.00 from RM5.50, attributing the move to lower assumed gas prices. Upside, the house said, depends on domestic prices staying higher for longer.
“By our estimates, every US$10 per barrel increase in Brent would lift our FY2027 net profit by 9% and our target price by 50 sen a share,” it said.
Gas Malaysia has paid at least 75% of earnings as dividends since its 2012 listing. Maybank IB projects an 80% payout for the year ending Dec 31, 2026, implying a yield of about 4.5%.
Analysts have grown cautious. Nine houses tracked by Bloomberg now have only two ‘buy’ calls on the stock, with no ‘sell’ ratings. The 12-month average target price is RM5.42 a share.
Related: Maybank