Bitcoin recovers 90% of 2024 crash as traders eye halving cycle

MALAYSIA, 23 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

Bitcoin has clawed back 90% of its losses since November 2024, rising to $58,000 on Monday after a 12-month slump that saw the asset shed nearly 70% of its value.

The recovery—driven by speculative positioning ahead of the April 2025 halving, which cuts miner rewards by half—has traders and analysts debating whether the rally is sustainable or merely a pre-event consolidation.

The rebound follows a 14% surge in January as spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted $1.2 billion in inflows, the largest monthly inflow since approvals in January 2024. CoinGlass data shows long liquidations on futures markets have slowed, with traders now holding $1.8 billion in net long positions—a sign of cautious optimism rather than euphoria.

Yet the rally remains fragile. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average at $56,000 acts as a psychological barrier, and on-chain metrics from Glassnode indicate accumulation pressure has eased, with net position changes turning negative in the past week. "The halving hype is real, but we’re not seeing the same FOMO as 2020," said Dan Tapiero, managing partner at 10T Holdings. "Institutional demand is there, but retail is still hesitant after last year’s crash."

What’s next? The halving itself—scheduled for April 20, 2025—is the primary catalyst, but its impact may differ from past cycles. Unlike 2020, when Bitcoin surged 300% in the year after the halving, this year’s rally is being tempered by ETF outflows in February and regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. and EU. Analysts at Standard Chartered warn that macro conditions—particularly higher-for-longer interest rates—could cap upside, predicting a range-bound 2025 unless inflation cools further.

For Malaysian investors, the recovery offers a reminder of the asset’s volatility. While local crypto adoption remains under 5% of retail investors, according to Bank Negara Malaysia’s 2024 financial stability report, institutional interest is growing. Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) and CIMB Group have both expanded crypto custody services in the past year, though retail participation lags due to tax uncertainty and limited exchange infrastructure.

The bigger question is whether Bitcoin can sustain momentum beyond the halving. If it does, the next resistance level—$65,000—could draw fresh buying, but a breakdown below $52,000 would signal another leg down. "This isn’t a new bull market yet," said a trader at a Singapore-based digital asset fund. "It’s a halving rally with a lot of noise."

--- MyMy raises RM12m to chase Malaysia’s first shariah-compliant digital bank license Malaysia’s fintech startup MyMy has secured RM12 million in pre-launch funding, positioning itself as the most ambitious bid yet for a shariah-compliant digital bank license when Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) opens applications in 2025.

The round, led by Koperasi Angkatan Tentera Malaysia Berhad (Koperasi Tentera), values MyMy at over RM50 million and provides the regulatory capital needed to apply for BNM’s e-Money license—a prerequisite for a full banking charter. The startup, founded in 2018, distinguishes itself by offering zero-fee, real-time multi-currency exchange for 11 currencies (expandable to 20) and a travel card usable in 200 countries.

MyMy’s ambition goes beyond regional competition. Tunku Dato’ Ahmad Burhanuddin, its chairman, told Vulcan Post the startup aims to become "Malaysia’s first unicorn and the world’s first shariah-compliant digital bank", targeting the 1.9 billion global Muslim population. A shariah advisory committee of academics and business leaders has overseen product design from inception, ensuring compliance with Islamic finance principles.

The timing is critical. BNM’s digital banking license auction, delayed until 2025, will see MyMy compete against established players like Grab Financial Group, SeaMoney (by Sea Ltd), and Revolut’s Southeast Asia expansion. MyMy’s edge lies in its in-house-built technology stack and beta-ready product, though its lack of legacy banking relationships is a disadvantage.

"We’re not just another e-wallet," said Joe McGuire, MyMy’s CEO. "Banking licenses are the surest path to profitability—90% of revenue in consumer banking comes from cash management and lending." The startup is already taking beta applicants and expects to launch once licensed, with plans to expand beyond ASEAN if the shariah model gains traction.

Koperasi Tentera’s involvement—one of Malaysia’s largest credit cooperatives—adds credibility. The military-linked cooperative, transformed from a thrift and loan society in 1960, brings regulatory experience and a member base of 1.2 million, potentially accelerating MyMy’s customer acquisition.

Yet the road to a license is far from guaranteed. BNM’s 2021 digital bank pilot saw only five licenses awarded, with Boost, Fave and GXS Bank emerging as winners. MyMy’s pre-launch status and niche focus could work in its favor, but scalability remains unproven.

If successful, it would mark a rare Malaysian fintech breakthrough—the first unicorn since Grab’s 2021 IPO—and a test case for shariah-compliant digital banking in a region where Islamic finance assets exceed $3 trillion.

Related: MyMy · Bank Negara Malaysia · Kishore Samuel · Malaysia