Bitcoin Price Prediction Ahead of Friday’s $18B BTC and ETH Options Expiry

KUALA LUMPUR, 24 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

Nearly $18 billion of bitcoin and ether options expire on Friday, the largest single expiry of 2026, while bitcoin holds above $85,000 after a 6% weekly gain. Bitcoin traded at $85,416 on Wednesday, down 0.28% in the latest four-hour candle, according to Coingape data.

Ether shows a similar tilt: $1.32 billion in calls against $813 million in puts, with call interest stretching from $3,000 to $4,000, well above current spot near $2,751.

Max-pain calculations — the price at which option buyers collectively lose the most — sit at $75,000 for bitcoin and $2,250 for ether. Those levels are theoretical and do not forecast where either asset will trade at settlement, but they frame the range where market-makers may hedge most aggressively. Bitcoin's max-pain level sits $10,416 below Wednesday's price, while ether's is $501 below its current level.

U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $715 million on September 22, marking a fourth consecutive day of net inflows, according to SoSoValue data cited by Wu Blockchain. Spot ether ETFs added $162 million, extending their streak to three days. Combined net subscriptions reached $877 million, with bitcoin funds drawing more than four times the ether total. The bitcoin inflow compares with $620 million the previous session, based on the same data series.

Technical indicators suggest the rally is pausing. The four-hour relative strength index has fallen to 61 from overbought territory above 70 earlier in the week, and the moving average convergence divergence line has slipped below its signal line, producing a negative histogram reading of 165.90. Immediate resistance lies at the recent high near $87,000, followed by $88,000 and the $90,000 level where heavy call open interest sits.

A break below $85,000 would expose support near $82,000, roughly $3,400 below Wednesday's price.

On-chain data adds a cautionary note. The realised profit-to-loss ratio for short-term bitcoin holders has climbed to its highest level since the October 2025 peak, Coingape reported. The surge indicates that newer holders are sitting on large paper gains, increasing the likelihood of profit-taking pressure. The data does not imply a 50% crash, but sustained selling could deepen any post-expiry pullback.

Traders will watch whether the $85,000 floor holds through Friday's settlement and whether the call-heavy skew at $90,000 and $100,000 draws buying interest if momentum returns. Ether's ability to reclaim $3,000 — the bottom of its own call wall — will signal whether the altcoin can decouple from bitcoin's near-term range.