Flydubai attack feeds into Netanyahu’s ‘protector’ narrative with crucial elections approaching Ran Porat, Monash University

ISRAEL, 1 OCTOBER 2026 —

The apparent attempted hijacking of a Flydubai flight carrying 170 mostly Israeli passengers has intensified the security narrative surrounding Israel’s general election scheduled for October 27.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving leader in the country’s history, has moved to incorporate this event into his campaign, seeking to restore his image as the “protector of Israel” in the final days before voters head to the polls.

The timing of the incident is politically significant, occurring just hours after Netanyahu released a video warning of attempts to harm Israelis in the lead-up to the election. Initially, political opponents criticized this video as a stunt designed to divert public discourse away from the government’s role in the failures that enabled the October 7 Hamas attacks. However, the suspected terror incident on the Flydubai plane has allowed Netanyahu to claim vindication for his warnings.

By posting a video and images on his social media accounts showing him embracing and praising a passenger who stormed the cockpit, Netanyahu has framed the event as evidence of the ongoing danger that only his leadership can manage.

Despite the political utility of the incident, Netanyahu continues to refuse acceptance of blame for the October 7 attack. He has blocked the creation of a judicial commission of inquiry to investigate the intelligence and security failures that preceded the assault. Furthermore, his attempts to establish an alternative investigative committee more favorable to his position have failed.

Netanyahu has repeatedly argued that security officials failed to warn him of the impending assault, stating that “if they had woken him up” earlier on October 7, “things would have been very different.”

Recent reports, however, challenge this narrative. Numerous media outlets have reported that Israel’s security agencies, as well as Netanyahu himself, received explicit warnings days before the 2023 attack. These warnings came from high-ranking Arab officials, including Egypt’s intelligence minister, and leaders such as the United Arab Emirates’ Mohammad bin Zaid. Additionally, a new book claims that Netanyahu received a direct warning from Hamas’ leader, Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the attack.

Despite these alerts, Israeli decision-makers were reportedly captive to a concept known as conceptzia, a detailed and entrenched set of assumptions about the enemy’s capabilities and intentions.

The term conceptzia was originally coined to describe Israel’s intelligence failures before the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. In the context of 2023, Netanyahu’s conceptzia, supported by many security officials who misread or were fooled by Sinwar, was that Qatari money going to Hamas would “buy quiet,” in the words of his critics. Netanyahu approved the transfer of millions of dollars from Qatar to Gaza from 2018 onward.

However, instead of assisting needy Gazans, Israeli intelligence believes much of these funds ended up feeding the growth of Hamas’ military abilities and underground terror infrastructure.

In the upcoming election, Netanyahu faces strong opposition from the “ABBA” bloc, an acronym for “Anyone But Bibi Again,” a reference to his nickname. His main rival is the Yashar! Party, which translates as “direct” or “straightforward,” headed by former head of the Israel Defense Forces Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot’s personal stake in the conflict is profound, as his son was killed in the Gaza war. Polls consistently suggest that Yashar!

will be the biggest party after the elections, yet forming a coalition may prove difficult. Eisenkot’s bloc is composed of a mishmash of right, left, and centre-aligned parties, with little common ground except their shared goal of ousting Netanyahu.

The fragility of such a coalition is highlighted by the fate of the previous government led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, which fell apart quickly in 2022. Furthermore, many Zionist parties demand that the next government be “Zionist-only,” refusing to participate in a coalition that includes the Arab Islamic party Ra’am.

Ra’am was the missing piece that enabled the creation of the Bennett-Lapid government after four consecutive elections ended in 2022 without anyone having a path to a governing majority. Without Ra’am, the ABBA bloc may not be able to form a stable coalition, leaving the political landscape precarious.

The fate of a few small parties that must pass the vote threshold to sit in the Knesset acts as a wild card that is almost impossible to predict. If votes from the pro- or anti-Bibi blocs are wasted on small parties that fail to meet the threshold, this could dramatically affect the result. Until recently, polls were consistently pointing to a change of government being likely.

However, in recent weeks, the polls have tightened between the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs because they do not count the Arab parties and the centre-right Hendel/Zelekha party. It remains uncertain if this party will even pass the threshold, adding another layer of unpredictability to the electoral outcome.

The election campaign is heavily influenced by the third anniversary of the October 7 terror attack, which Israelis will commemorate somberly a few days before the vote. Almost 1,200 Israelis of all ages were massacred on that day, with some 250 people kidnapped, countless women raped, and whole neighbourhoods pillaged and destroyed.

In the war in Gaza that followed, more than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed, with vast stretches of the enclave left in ruins and 1.2 million people left without homes. October 7 is everywhere in the heated election campaign, with many candidates being family members of victims or soldiers injured in the war.

A poll of the unprecedented large number of young, first-time voters revealed that October 7 has dramatically shifted their views to the right. This demographic shift is a critical factor in the current political dynamics. What will worry many Israelis most is that the election will again end with a deadlock.

The Jewish state urgently needs a leader that can safely steer it in the face of increasing criticism over the Gaza war, a wave of ugly antisemitism globally, and now incidents like the attempted Flydubai hijacking.

Netanyahu will certainly be seeking to project himself as the person who can meet these challenges, leveraging the Flydubai incident to reinforce his status as a protector. However, his opponents will also seek to position themselves as capable of addressing these security and political crises.

The outcome of the October 27 election will determine whether Israel continues under Netanyahu’s leadership or transitions to a new government, with the stability of the coalition and the handling of the ongoing regional conflicts remaining central issues for voters.

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