COP31 must set higher emissions-reduction targets for material use

TÜRKIYE (HOST OF COP31), NEW YORK (UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY), SOUTHEAST ASIA (REGIONAL RELEVANCE), 29 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

COP31 Faces Pressure to Set Ambitious Circular Economy Targets Amid Growing Material Emissions Gap

Türkiye, host of the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in November, has proposed global goals to boost recycled materials and halve waste generation—but experts warn the targets fall short of what is needed to meaningfully cut emissions tied to resource extraction and consumption.

A senior researcher at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre argues that without stronger commitments to material circularity, the summit risks overlooking a critical emissions source that cannot be addressed by cleaner electricity alone.

The proposals, outlined on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, include increasing the share of recycled products in global material use to at least 15% by 2035 (up from 6.9% in 2025) and halving waste generation by the same year. While these are steps forward, Patrick Schröder, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, says they are far too modest to align with the scale of emissions reductions required.

He warns that circularity must become a cornerstone of national climate commitments, not an afterthought.

The urgency stems from the embedded emissions in how societies extract, manufacture, and dispose of materials. A 2024 review by the European Environment Agency found that adopting circular economy principles—such as designing durable products, repairing and reusing items, and reducing reliance on virgin resources—could deliver average global emissions reductions of up to 52% in waste, 48% in construction, 28% in transport, 26% in industry, and 24% in agriculture compared to business-as-usual scenarios.

These figures underscore the climate leverage of shifting from a linear "take-make-waste" economy to one that prioritizes reuse and recycling.

The potential savings are particularly stark in critical minerals essential for clean energy technologies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that recycling minerals used in cleantech equipment—such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth metals—can reduce their carbon footprint by up to 80% compared to primary mining and processing. A major EU-funded project further projects that recovered materials could meet 56% of Europe’s primary critical raw material needs by 2050, provided quality standards are met.

Yet Türkiye’s proposed 15% recycled materials target is nowhere near sufficient, Schröder says, citing the Circularity Gap Report, which suggests a 17% target by 2032 is achievable and could unlock several gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions reductions.

The deeper challenge, however, is reducing overall demand for virgin materials. Even if recycling rates improve, total material consumption could continue to rise if policies do not address the root cause: overconsumption and inefficient use of resources.

The Circularity Gap Report sets an indicative benchmark of eight tonnes of virgin materials consumed per person annually—a target already embraced by Germany’s 2024 circular economy strategy, which aims to reduce per capita resource use to six to eight tonnes. Achieving this would require integrated energy and resource policies, including: - Efficient electric vehicles (EVs) paired with renewable energy to complement sustainable urban mobility.

- Battery designs that prioritize repair, reuse, and recycling to extend the lifecycle of clean energy infrastructure. - Urban planning that minimizes overbuilding and focuses on renovating existing structures to reduce demand for emissions-intensive materials like steel and cement. - Waste heat recovery systems in industrial zones to cut energy waste and emissions.

Schröder outlines three concrete commitments COP31 should pursue to turn circularity into a climate action priority: 1. Stronger global circularity targets, backed by material-footprint indicators and sectoral milestones, with recognition in negotiated outcomes under Türkiye’s COP31 Action Agenda. 2. Quantified circular economy measures in updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), including reuse, material efficiency, and circularity benchmarks, alongside transparent emissions savings estimates to avoid double-counting.

As of late 2025, 101 countries had developed national circular economy roadmaps, but many remain disconnected from their climate pledges. 3. Climate finance for circular solutions, such as large-scale material recovery infrastructure, circular critical mineral value chains, and sustainable plastics economies. Developing nations—where informal waste workers play a role in recycling—require technology, affordable financing, and policy support to transition sustainably.

The stakes for COP31 are high. Without binding commitments to reduce primary material demand, even ambitious recycling targets will fail to curb emissions. Yet the summit presents a unique opportunity to redefine climate policy by embedding circularity into national strategies, backed by measurable reductions in resource use and emissions. Schröder stresses that a headline target alone is meaningless without policies that shift consumption patterns and finance sustainable alternatives.

As negotiations approach, the regional implications for Southeast Asia—where rapid industrialization and urbanization are driving soaring material demand—are particularly relevant. Countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam face dual pressures: meeting climate goals while managing resource-intensive growth. The success of COP31 could set a precedent for Asian economies to integrate circular economy principles into their Industrial Revolution 4.0 and green transition roadmaps, potentially reducing their carbon footprints from construction, manufacturing, and waste sectors.

For now, the ball is in Türkiye’s court. Whether COP31 delivers on circularity will depend on whether negotiators rise to the challenge—or risk leaving one of the largest remaining emissions gaps unaddressed. The clock is ticking, and the next decade’s climate outcomes may hinge on answers found in November.