Lula’s presidency preserves at least 20,000 sq km of Brazilian Amazon since 2022

BRAZIL (AMAZON REGION), NULL, 29 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

In the run‑up to Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, a new study shows that the Amazon forest has avoided at least 20,000 km² of deforestation since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in 2022, a loss that would have been far larger had Jair Bolsonaro remained president.

The study is based on the GLOBIOM‑Brazil model, a global environmental model used by the University of Oxford, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE). It was updated in 2023 from a 2018 version and uses satellite data to estimate annual deforestation.

The model simulates a “no forest code” baseline that represents the level of deforestation that would have occurred if the forest code—Brazil’s flagship legislation that requires landowners to preserve and restore forest on their property—had not been enforced. The baseline is intended to mimic the weak governance seen under Bolsonaro’s administration.

According to the model, the forest code enforcement that began in 2022 has already cut annual Amazon deforestation by more than half. In 2022, the forest lost 11,594 km², while in 2025 the loss fell to 5,731 km². Preliminary satellite alerts for the period from August 2025 to July 2026 show a deforestation figure of 2,874 km².

The final figure for 2026 is not yet released, but experts expect it to be the lowest since records began in 1988. Dr. Aline Soterroni, a University of Oxford researcher who led the 2023 analysis, said that the reversal seen under Lula “shows how quickly deforestation can respond to political will”.

She added that the “no forest code” scenario is relatively conservative, with deforestation remaining high but not rising, because it does not capture the potential for illegal forest clearing under weak governance.

Claudio Angelo, international policy coordinator at Brazil’s Climate Observatory, said that if Bolsonaro had won the 2022 election, “we have reason to believe [this would have resulted] in much higher rates than during his first term”. He warned that a Bolsonaro victory would likely have driven an “explosion of wildcat mining” and illegal deforestation in the Amazon.

Angelo also pointed to efforts by Flávio Bolsonaro—Jair’s son and a senator for Rio de Janeiro—to formally dismantle the forest code in the Brazilian congress during Jair’s first term. “The political signal would likely have driven an explosion of wildcat mining and illegal deforestation in the Amazon,” Angelo said.

The study’s findings are framed against the backdrop of Brazil’s 2026 election, in which Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro, who has indicated that he will continue his father’s political agenda and favour agribusiness and mining. The two candidates are neck‑and‑neck in opinion polls. If Lula wins, experts say he is likely to continue the “zero deforestation by 2030” agenda that has already had a pronounced impact on forest loss.

The Climate Observatory’s analysis of the six top‑polling presidential candidates found that Lula’s proposals contain 16 “positive and detailed” environmental commitments, including reaffirming his “zero deforestation by 2030” goal. Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, has one positive environmental commitment and seven “clearly anti‑environmental” proposals. He has committed to zero “illegal” deforestation by 2029, but his other proposals are expected to favour agribusiness and mining.

The Amazon is home to nearly 60 % of the world’s tropical rainforest and is a key component of Brazil’s climate strategy. The forest’s health directly affects Brazil’s emissions, which are largely driven by deforestation.

The 2023 study, which is a refined update of a 2018 study that used the same GLOBIOM‑Brazil model, compares forest code implementation with a baseline scenario in which the code is not enforced, reflecting the kind of weak governance seen under the Bolsonaro administration.

The analysis is based on a comparison of forest code implementation with a “baseline” scenario in which the code is not enforced, reflecting the kind of weak governance seen under the Bolsonaro administration.

The study’s authors note that the modelling of the “no forest code” scenario is “relatively conservative”, with deforestation remaining high but not rising. The scenario also does not capture the potential for illegal forest clearing in response to weak governance. Indeed, some experts anticipated in 2022 that a Bolsonaro victory would send deforestation rates rising to near‑record levels.

Dr. Soterroni said that deforestation rates did not immediately drop following Lula’s election, as suggested by modelling of a full “forest code compliance” scenario. She said this reflects the “gradual and imperfect process” of restoring and enforcing the law. “The key message from our modelling is the contrast between these trajectories: weak environmental governance keeps deforestation higher than full implementation of the forest code. That message remains relevant today.”

The analysis also highlights the importance of political will in protecting the Amazon. Dr. Soterroni said that the reversal seen under Lula “shows how quickly deforestation can respond to political will”. She added that the “no forest code” scenario is relatively conservative, with deforestation remaining high but not rising, because it does not capture the potential for illegal forest clearing under weak governance.

The study’s authors note that the modelling of the “no forest code” scenario is “relatively conservative”, with deforestation remaining high but not rising. The scenario also does not capture the potential for illegal forest clearing in response to weak governance. Indeed, some experts anticipated in 2022 that a Bolsonaro victory would send deforestation rates rising to near‑record levels.

The study’s findings are framed against the backdrop of Brazil’s 2026 election, in which Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro, who has indicated that he will continue his father’s political agenda and favour agribusiness and mining. The two candidates are neck‑and‑neck in opinion polls. If Lula wins, experts say he is likely to continue the “zero deforestation by 2030” agenda that has already had a pronounced impact on forest loss.

The Climate Observatory’s analysis of the six top‑polling presidential candidates found that Lula’s proposals contain 16 “positive and detailed” environmental commitments, including reaffirming his “zero deforestation by 2030” goal. Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, has one positive environmental commitment and seven “clearly anti‑environmental” proposals. He has committed to zero “illegal” deforestation by 2029, but his other proposals are expected to favour agribusiness and mining.

The Amazon is home to nearly 60 % of the world’s tropical rainforest and is a key component of Brazil’s climate strategy. The forest’s health directly affects Brazil’s emissions, which are largely driven by deforestation.

The 2023 study, which is a refined update of a 2018 study that used the same GLOBIOM‑Brazil model, compares forest code implementation with a baseline scenario in which the code is not enforced, reflecting the kind of weak governance seen under the Bolsonaro administration.

The analysis is based on a comparison of forest code implementation with a “baseline” scenario in which the code is not enforced, reflecting the kind of weak governance seen under the Bolsonaro administration.

The study’s authors note that the modelling of the “no forest code” scenario is “relatively conservative”, with deforestation remaining high but not rising. The scenario also does not capture the potential for illegal forest clearing in response to weak governance. Indeed, some experts anticipated in 2022 that a Bolsonaro victory would send deforestation rates rising to near‑record levels.

Dr. Soterroni said that deforestation rates did not immediately drop following Lula’s election, as suggested by modelling of a full “forest code compliance” scenario. She said this reflects the “gradual and imperfect process” of restoring and enforcing the law. “The key message from our modelling is the contrast between these trajectories: weak environmental governance keeps deforestation higher than full implementation of the forest code. That message remains relevant today.”

The study’s findings are framed against the backdrop of Brazil’s 2026 election, in which Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro, who has indicated that he will continue his father’s political agenda and favour agribusiness and mining. The two candidates are neck‑and‑neck in opinion polls. If Lula wins, experts say he is likely to continue the “zero deforestation by 2030” agenda that has already had a pronounced impact on forest loss.

The Climate Observatory’s analysis of the six top‑polling presidential candidates found that Lula’s proposals contain 16 “positive and detailed” environmental commitments, including reaffirming his “zero deforestation by 2030” goal. Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, has one positive environmental commitment and seven “clearly anti‑environmental” proposals. He has committed to zero “illegal” deforestation by 2029, but his other proposals are expected to favour agribusiness and mining.

The Amazon is home to nearly 60 % of the world’s tropical rainforest and is a key component of Brazil’s climate strategy. The forest’s health directly affects Brazil’s emissions, which are largely driven by deforestation.

The 2023 study, which is a refined update of a 2018 study that used the same GLOBIOM‑Brazil model, compares forest code implementation with a baseline scenario in which the code is not enforced, reflecting the kind of weak governance seen under the Bolsonaro administration.

The analysis is based on a comparison of forest code implementation with a “baseline” scenario in which the code is not enforced, reflecting the kind of weak governance seen under the Bolsonaro administration.