El Niño to add 39,000 heat deaths in Southeast Asia as extreme heat days surge 44%

KUALA LUMPUR, 24 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

A University of Chicago study projects this year’s El Niño will cause nearly 39,000 excess heat-related deaths in Southeast Asia—including Malaysia—by mid-2027, as extreme heat days rise 44% above normal, according to research published by the Climate Impact Lab.

The study frames current conditions as a "preview of our future", with today’s extreme heat risks becoming the norm within 20 years if adaptation efforts fail. Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the deaths would affect "families, workers, and neighbors"—but tens of thousands could be prevented through early warning systems, cooling centers, and targeted protections for outdoor laborers.

Tamma Carleton, the lab’s research director, urged governments to prioritize resilience funding now, warning that without intervention, "we’ll be stuck in perpetual crisis mode."

Malaysia’s exposure is heightened by urban heat islands, aging infrastructure, and vulnerable demographics. The National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) has previously linked heatwaves to rising hospitalizations, particularly among outdoor workers and the elderly. While Southeast Asia’s total excess deaths (39,000) remain below the Sahel’s, local authorities may now accelerate heat-action plans, though no immediate policy shifts have been announced.

Tourism and agriculture face direct risks. Prolonged heatwaves could deter international visitors to coastal destinations like Langkawi and Penang, while palm oil and rubber plantations—key to Malaysia’s RM120 billion annual exports—are exposed to drought stress. The Malaysian Meteorological Department has already warned of El Niño-induced dry spells beginning in June, potentially reducing yields in sectors critical to the economy.

The study’s projections assume no major policy changes, underscoring the need for Malaysia to integrate heat-resilience measures into national climate strategies. With El Niño’s peak expected in late 2026, authorities will likely monitor hospital admission trends and power demand spikes to assess local adaptation needs. The findings serve as a warning: without proactive measures, Malaysia’s economic and social costs from heat stress will escalate alongside global temperatures.

Researchers will update death projections as the El Niño event evolves, emphasizing that coordinated action—such as expanding cooling infrastructure and protecting vulnerable workers—could still save tens of thousands of lives. The study’s call for urgent funding aligns with broader warnings from the WMO, which has classified this El Niño as a "global risk multiplier" for food insecurity, wildfires, and health crises.