Malaysia needs sharper tools to hit its 2045 smoking target, analyst says

MALAYSIA, 10 AUGUST 2026 —

Malaysia’s smoking rate stood at 21.3% in 2022, above the 2025 target of 15% and far from the 2045 goal of 5%, according to data from the Health Ministry.

The original GEG, introduced in July 2022 via the Control of Tobacco Product and Smoking Bill, aimed to ban sales to anyone born after 2007. It was removed after constitutional challenges and industry pressure, and a subsequent court ruling left vapes and e-cigarettes in a regulatory grey area.

The Next-GEG measures a product’s economic embeddedness by domestic retail value and excise share, and social embeddedness by population uptake and dependency factors. Track 1 covers tobacco and vapes already embedded in the economy. It would raise the minimum purchase age annually for a defined cohort and shrink supply quotas while cutting nicotine concentrations on a fixed timeline.

Track 2 targets emerging products like nicotine pouches with an immediate blanket ban under the existing Control of Tobacco Product and Smoking Act 852. Novel or unclassified products would be prohibited by default until cleared by the Ministry of Health.

Both tracks sit within a three-phase fiscal and enforcement architecture. Phase 1 allows enforcement agencies to retain seized assets from illicit tobacco and vape raids to fund operations. Phase 2 raises excise on cigarettes and vapes only if the illicit market shrinks. Phase 3 creates a transition fund from incremental excise revenue for enforcement, worker retraining, public health campaigns, industry grants and retailer exit support.

Dr Lim proposes independent economic assessment by the Ministry of Health and University of Malaya, continuous public engagement, and constitutional ring-fencing of all components to require a supermajority to repeal. The framework is designed to finance enforcement that curbs the illicit market, which has long stalled regulation.

Malaysia’s tobacco market is valued at roughly RM5.5 billion annually, with vapes and e-cigarettes estimated at RM1.8 billion in 2023 retail sales, according to market estimates. Excise on cigarettes and vapes contributed RM5.2 billion to government revenue in 2023, up from RM4.8 billion in 2022. The illicit tobacco market is estimated at 48% of total sales, one of the highest in ASEAN, while vape illicit trade is estimated at 55% of total sales.

Public health advocates welcomed the call for stronger controls. Prof Dr Moy Foong Ming of the University of Malaya’s Department of Social and Preventive Medicine said the two-track approach recognises economic realities while protecting public health.

“We cannot ignore the revenue and employment tied to tobacco, but we also cannot let new nicotine products take root,” she said. “A rolling age limit and supply caps can work if enforcement is funded and sustained.”

The Malaysian Vape Chamber of Commerce said banning emerging products outright could stifle harm-reduction innovation and push users back to cigarettes. Chamber president Azrul Mohd Khalib said blanket bans without market assessment risk creating new illicit channels.

“Regulation should allow products proven to reduce harm to stay on the market with strict controls,” he said.

Bank Negara Malaysia’s latest annual report shows tobacco excise contributed 2.1% of total tax revenue in 2023, unchanged from 2022. The report flags illicit trade as a persistent risk to revenue stability and public health.

A Health Ministry official, who declined to be named, said the ministry is reviewing the proposal along with feedback from other agencies.

“We are open to evidence-based measures that reduce smoking while protecting livelihoods,” the official said. “The key is sequencing: we cannot front-load heavy regulation without a credible exit path for workers and retailers.”

Dr Lim’s framework would require parliamentary supermajority support to amend, giving it long-term durability. He argues that only a defensible, self-funding endgame can withstand industry pressure and legal challenges while steering Malaysia toward its 2045 target.

The proposal does not estimate the cost of the transition fund or the revenue impact of excise increases, saying both depend on illicit market enforcement outcomes. Dr Lim did not provide a timeline for implementation or specify which cohort would be subject to the rolling age window.

Related: Ministry of Health (MOH), University of Malaya · Kingsun Lim · Malaysia