Bursa Malaysia’s second-half trading seen slowing on softer equity activity
CIMB Research expects Bursa Malaysia Bhd to face softer trading in the second half of 2026 as equity turnover slows.
Source: The Star · KLSE Screener · July 28, 2026 at 12:55 AM · AI-assisted report
Single-sourceBURSA MALAYSIA, 28 JULY 2026 —
CIMB Research expects Bursa Malaysia Bhd to face softer trading in the second half of 2026 as equity turnover slows.
Market Impact
The research house cut its earnings forecasts for Bursa Malaysia’s financial years 2026 to 2028 by between 3.8% and 6.3%. It projects average daily trading value to fall to RM2.65 billion in 2H26, down from RM3.5 billion in the second quarter.
CIMB Research attributed the outlook to shifting investor sentiment, saying trading was marked by frequent shifts between risk-on and risk-off positioning amid global trade policy uncertainty, US monetary policy expectations, currency moves and domestic political concerns.
“Rather than a sustained ‘risk-on’ environment, trading sentiment was characterised by frequent shifts between risk-on and risk-off positioning as investors navigated evolving developments surrounding global trade policies, US monetary policy expectations, currency movements and domestic political uncertainties,” the research house said.
Derivatives activity proved more resilient. Contracts traded rose 15% year-on-year in 2Q26 and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a 15.7% jump in crude palm oil futures. FBM FKLI volumes climbed 11.9% year-on-year and 1.9% quarter-on-quarter.
CIMB Research expects effective clearing fees to fall to 2.3 basis points in FY26-FY28 from 2.4 basis points previously, as institutional participation rises to 71%-72% versus retail at 28%-29%.
It raised its derivatives trading average daily contract projection to 96,900-105,100 from 96,500-101,300 and lifted “other operating expenses” by roughly 10% to 15% to reflect higher IT maintenance and administrative costs.
Despite a forecast 11.8% year-on-year earnings increase for FY26, growth is expected to slow to 1% in FY27 and 2.5% in FY28, indicating a more sustainable medium-term path.
“In our view, market expectations have yet to fully adjust to the weaker risk-reward profile in 2H26, which may cap Bursa Malaysia’s near-term share price upside,” CIMB Research said.
The research house maintained its “hold” call on Bursa Malaysia but trimmed the target price to RM8.65 from RM9.00 following the earnings downgrade.
“We continue to foresee lingering risk aversion amid lacklustre trading sentiment ahead of the general election,” it added.
Longer-term prospects brightened after the Securities Commission Malaysia and Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission signed a landmark memorandum of understanding.
CIMB Research called the pact “a meaningful long-term structural catalyst” that strengthens Bursa Malaysia’s growth prospects and supports a longer-term re-rating, though near-term earnings impact is likely limited.
The new framework aims to enhance capital market connectivity and collaboration, creating regulatory infrastructure for broader investment opportunities and greater cross-border participation.
Related: Bursa Malaysia