AMRO’s 2026 Annual Consultation Report on Brunei Darussalam
Brunei’s Growth Rebounds Modestly in 2026 as Oil Prices Lift Economy, But Structural Risks Persist
Source: ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office · October 11, 2026 at 3:02 AM · AI-assisted report
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BRUNEI DARUSSALAM, 11 OCTOBER 2026 —
Brunei’s Growth Rebounds Modestly in 2026 as Oil Prices Lift Economy, But Structural Risks Persist
Market Impact
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts Brunei Darussalam’s economy to grow at 1.0% in 2025 before rebounding slightly in 2026, supported by higher global crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices. The rebound, however, underscores the nation’s persistent vulnerability to hydrocarbon price volatility and limited progress in economic diversification, according to AMRO’s 2026 Annual Consultation Report.
The report highlights that Brunei’s economic recovery remains fragile, with growth projected to stabilize at a modest pace over the medium term. Near-term risks are dominated by oil and gas price swings, while structural challenges—including over-reliance on hydrocarbon revenues, weak private sector dynamism, and slow progress in development spending—continue to weigh on long-term resilience.
Brunei’s economy contracted sharply in 2025, growing by just 1.0%, as non-oil and gas (non-O&G) sectors struggled. However, non-O&G exports have risen significantly, accounting for over 60% of total exports in 2025, up from 11% in 2017, driven primarily by downstream petrochemical activities. Despite this progress, AMRO warns that broader diversification beyond downstream O&G remains critical to achieving Brunei’s structural transformation goals under Wawasan 2035.
The report notes that Brunei’s fiscal and external positions remain strong due to substantial sovereign assets, but persistent issues—such as rigid current expenditure, skills gaps, and underspending on development budgets—threaten sustainable growth. Higher energy prices offer near-term relief, but the economy’s exposure to global shocks and slow diversification efforts leave its future trajectory uncertain. The next AMRO assessment will likely scrutinize Brunei’s ability to mitigate these risks as global energy markets remain volatile.
Related: Brunei Darussalam