Houthi seizure of Mokha threatens Red Sea trade as Saudi oil routes face blockade

KUALA LUMPUR, 29 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

Yemen’s Houthi rebels seized the strategic port of Mokha and islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in September 2026, advancing a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.

The territorial advance expanded Houthi control over Yemen’s coastline two months after the group declared a blockade on Saudi Arabia, the Council on Foreign Relations reported. The Iran-aligned group had already banned Israeli and Israeli-linked vessels from the Red Sea in June.

That expansion threatens an inlet carrying 12% to 15% of global maritime commerce worth over $1 trillion annually, according to the International Maritime Organization. The waterway also handles 30% of global container traffic.

Energy flows face immediate peril, CFR experts argued. About 4.2 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum products crossed the Bab el-Mandeb in the first half of 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That compared with 4.9 million barrels per day through the Suez Canal and 21 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz. Together, the Red Sea routes represented 6% of seaborne oil trade.

Safe passage through the strait is disappearing, CFR energy expert Clara Gillispie said. The loss of that passage contracts viable oil and liquefied natural gas routes connecting the Middle East to international buyers, Gillispie stated.

Saudi Arabia remains exposed because it pipes four to five million barrels per day of crude to Red Sea ports for export, CFR analyst Edward Fishman said. Fishman argued that Houthi forces could close the southern chokepoint and leave Riyadh with no functional export outlet.

The threat extends beyond energy. Roughly 90% of undersea fiber optic cables linking Europe and Asia run through the Red Sea, according to Gulf Research Center senior advisor Abdullah Jaber AlZaidi. AlZaidi warned that past underwater cable damage caused sweeping internet and cloud outages across Asia and Africa.

Regional defense pacts have not halted the disruption. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement in August 2026, establishing mutual defense commitments. Riyadh has not invoked the treaty, though Islamabad and Ankara condemned the attacks, CFR reported.

Houthi strikes continue to escalate. The group launched an attempted drone attack aimed at Mecca and claimed to down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet, the CFR review stated.

Iran views the corridor as a strategic pressure point. Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, wrote that Tehran’s regional coalition views Bab el-Mandeb in the same terms as Hormuz.

A previous disruption provides a precedent for the economic cost, CFR noted. Houthi attacks following the 2023 Gaza conflict caused Bab el-Mandeb oil flows to plunge from 9.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 4.1 million barrels per day in 2024.

Washington faces a dual challenge across both waterways, CFR fellow Steven A. Cook said. The prospective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb alongside disruptions at Hormuz tests the historical American commitment to protect navigation and Middle Eastern energy flows, Cook argued.