Haze and El Niño Threaten Public Health in Southeast Asia

MALAYSIA, SARAWAK, CHUPING (PERLIS), UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA (UPM), 27 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

Malaysia Faces Severe Haze and El Niño Threat as 2026 Crisis Deepens, with Public Health and Economy at Risk

Malaysia is bracing for a worsening haze crisis in August 2026, exacerbated by escalating forest fires in Indonesia and an impending "Super El Niño" event that could slash rainfall by up to 60% and push temperatures toward record highs of 40°C by late 2026, according to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Haliza Abdul Rahman, Head of the Laboratory of Youth in Leadership, Politics and Citizenship at Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM).

The Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) has already issued warnings that the phenomenon—expected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027—could trigger extreme heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and severe air pollution, testing the nation’s public health, water security, and agricultural resilience.

The stakes are heightened by historical precedent: Malaysia’s highest recorded temperature, 40.1°C in Chuping, Perlis, underscores the vulnerability of its population to such conditions. While haze has historically disrupted daily life—such as the recent school closures in Sarawak due to an Air Pollutant Index (API) exceeding 200—the looming El Niño threatens to transform a seasonal nuisance into a prolonged crisis.

Dr. Haliza warns that the question is no longer if Malaysia will face severe impacts, but how prepared its institutions are to mitigate health risks, economic losses, and social unrest before conditions deteriorate further.

The immediate health threat is well-documented. A Malaysian study spanning 2000–2019, covering 92 government hospitals and 92 air quality monitoring stations, linked haze exposure to 1,773,949 hospital admissions for respiratory diseases. The research found that every 10 µg/m³ increase in PM10—a key haze pollutant—correlated with a 0.51% to 3.7% rise in hospitalizations, exacerbating strains on an already overburdened healthcare system.

The dangers multiply under El Niño, as extreme heat compounds respiratory risks with dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heatstroke, disproportionately affecting children, the elderly, outdoor workers, and those with pre-existing cardiovascular conditions.

Water security emerges as another critical flashpoint. Climate experts cited by Dr. Haliza highlight that El Niño-driven droughts could reduce rainfall while increasing evaporation rates, straining Malaysia’s water supply infrastructure. Unlike haze, which garners immediate public attention, water shortages pose a silent but prolonged threat—disrupting households, agriculture, and industrial operations.

The agricultural sector, particularly oil palm and rice production, faces direct threats from heat stress and reduced soil moisture, risking lower yields and higher food prices amid global commodity volatility triggered by El Niño.

The response to the crisis hinges on transparency and coordination. Dr. Haliza stresses that inconsistent risk communication fuels public anxiety, with Malaysians demanding real-time data on API readings, PM2.5/PM10 levels, wind patterns, hotspot locations, school closures, and health advisories. Without clear, accessible information, speculation and mistrust in government action could undermine preparedness efforts.

She advocates for an integrated early warning system that combines El Niño forecasts with real-time monitoring of temperature, rainfall, dam levels, peatland conditions, satellite hotspots, and air quality—tools already available but underutilized.

Beyond domestic measures, regional cooperation remains critical. Indonesia’s peatland fires, a primary haze source, require stricter enforcement against open burning and cross-border collaboration with ASEAN partners. Malaysia must also fortify hospital readiness, protect schools from prolonged closures, and secure water reserves to avert cascading economic and social disruptions.

The window to act is narrowing: if El Niño intensifies as forecast, the 2026 haze episode could evolve into a multi-sectoral crisis, demanding urgent policy intervention before conditions reach a breaking point.

The next critical phase begins with the November 2026–January 2027 El Niño peak, when MetMalaysia’s warnings of extreme heat and drought will be put to the test. Whether Malaysia can avert a health and economic catastrophe depends on whether its institutions act now—or risk facing the consequences of inaction.

Related: Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) · Assoc. Prof. Dr. Haliza Abdul Rahman