Commentary: For the oil market, the Strait of Hormuz isn’t closed

WASHINGTON, 14 AUGUST 2026 —

Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Defy War Disruptions, Defying Price Fears

KUALA LUMPUR — Despite escalating tensions from the Iran conflict, the global oil market has absorbed what analysts describe as the largest supply shock in history without the price spikes many had anticipated. With Brent crude trading below US$90 a barrel, the absence of a supply crunch suggests that alternative routes and covert shipments are keeping markets supplied, even as traditional tracking methods struggle to verify flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

LONDON — "In price, is knowledge," goes an old market adage. Yet the current oil price—below US$90 a barrel—does not signal a severe shortage, despite the Iran war disrupting one of the world’s most critical chokepoints. The resilience of prices reflects a combination of strategic stock releases, bypass pipelines, and a sharp reduction in Chinese oil imports, which have freed up barrels for other buyers. Commercial inventories, too, have helped bridge the gap—at least temporarily.

Washington — U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has staked a bold claim, asserting that nearly 9 million barrels per day traversed the Strait of Hormuz in the week ending August 11, a figure that far exceeds independent tanker-tracking estimates. Most commercial monitors, including satellite-based services, place recent flows between 4 million and 5 million barrels per day, while Bloomberg Opinion’s own analysis suggests a figure above the consensus but still below Wright’s estimate.

Facing skepticism from market analysts and tanker-tracking firms, Wright doubled down on his assessment, arguing that many shipments are moving covertly. “Many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz due to ships moving covertly through the waterway,” he stated on August 12. The discrepancy has raised questions about the reliability of open-source intelligence in a conflict where transparency has become a casualty.

The Tracking Challenge Before the war, monitoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz was straightforward. Tankers broadcast their positions via Automatic Identification Systems (AIS), providing real-time data on vessel identity, location, and speed. If a tanker "went dark" by disabling its AIS, high-resolution satellite imagery filled the gaps. Today, that system has collapsed.

Nearly all vessels now operate without AIS, and most commercial satellite imagery providers—under pressure from Washington—have halted high-resolution sales. The market now relies on just two European Union-operated satellites, which capture only a single snapshot of the strait every three to five days. This limited visibility allows operators to time shipments to avoid detection.

The result is a widening gap between publicly available data and official U.S. estimates. Independent analysts acknowledge that at least 5 million barrels per day are transiting Hormuz based on identifiable tankers. Applying an adjustment factor for "known unknowns"—such as one or two covert supertankers per day—could push the total closer to 7 million or even 9 million barrels per day.

Regional and Global Implications The debate over actual flows carries significant consequences. If Wright’s higher estimate is accurate, it would imply that the oil market is far less disrupted than feared, easing concerns over inflation and interest rate policies. Conversely, if the lower estimates hold, the market remains vulnerable to sudden supply disruptions.

In the Middle East, conflicting narratives persist. While some claim the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, others describe nighttime convoys, daring ship-to-ship transfers, and even attacks on tankers that go unreported. Iran has been accused of targeting vessels to restrict passage, yet satellite imagery reveals a growing number of oil spills in the strait—a sign that many are working to keep the route open, despite the risks.

Stakeholder Perspectives Market participants remain divided. Some long-only investors have criticized the White House for "jawboning" oil prices downward since the conflict began, arguing that such interventions distort market signals. Wright’s credibility has also been questioned due to past missteps, including underestimating price risks and an erroneous social media post from a staffer.

Yet the U.S. government’s access to military intelligence and cooperation from regional allies—including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq—gives it a unique vantage point. While independent data contradicts Wright’s claims, the limitations of open-source intelligence leave room for uncertainty.

Looking Ahead For now, the oil market appears to be balancing on a knife’s edge. If covert flows continue at current or higher levels, prices may remain subdued, reducing pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy. However, the fragility of tracking mechanisms means that a sudden disruption—whether from an attack, a technical failure, or a policy shift—could quickly alter the landscape.

One thing is clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not closed. The real question is how much oil is slipping through unnoticed—and whether the market’s resilience is a sign of adaptability or a temporary reprieve before the next shock.

Related: Washington