Northern Mozambique's surging violence worsens displacement crisis

MOZAMBIQUE, CABO DELGADO, MAPUTO, MOCIMBOA DE PRAIA, MUEDA, PALMA, MACOMIA, QUISSANGA, 26 AUGUST 2026 —

Northern Mozambique’s decade-long conflict fuels worsening displacement crisis

The Mozambican government on Wednesday opened a two-day national forum in Maputo to address the plight of displaced populations, as clashes in Cabo Delgado intensify. Since 2017, the resource-rich northern region has been gripped by an armed rebellion linked to the Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP), despite bearing no organizational ties to Somalia’s al-Shabab. Heavy military deployments, including support from Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), have failed to dislodge the group. Renewed offensives since August 2025 have expanded the conflict’s footprint, with attacks now reported in all 17 districts of Cabo Delgado for the first time. Even former host communities are fleeing, while many displaced individuals have been uprooted multiple times.

According to the United Nations, over 1.3 million people have been forced from their homes since the conflict began, with 100,000 displaced in late 2025 alone. Between January and July 2026, at least 28,163 people were uprooted—65% of them women and children—amid intensified fighting around strategic towns such as Mocimboa de Praia. Once considered safe havens, areas like Mueda have also seen renewed violence, displacing aid workers and civilians alike. The humanitarian response, however, is severely constrained by global aid cuts. The UN reports that only 619,000 of the 1.1 million people in need are being reached due to funding shortfalls. UNICEF estimates that 1.8 million people—including a million children—require urgent assistance, while at least 6,000 have been killed since 2017.

Despite the ongoing violence, displacement trends have shifted in recent months. “People are just tired,” said Hannah Danziger da Silva, country representative for aid group We World. “They’re running into the bushes when attacks happen and then returning. They don’t want to leave their crops and homes behind again.” The crisis is further compounded by climate shocks: Cyclone Chido, which struck northern Mozambique in late 2024, displaced nearly 100,000 people, adding another layer of vulnerability to an already fragile situation.

ISMP, estimated to have between 300 and 500 fighters, remains one of Africa’s deadliest ISIL affiliates despite its relatively small size. The group has survived by exploiting illicit financial networks and cultivating local support, according to Peter Bofin of ACLED, a conflict monitoring organization. Initially led by Tanzanian commander Abu Yasir Hassan (“Abu Qasim”), who is believed to have been killed, the group is now reportedly under the leadership of another Tanzanian operative known as “Farido.” ISMP’s origins trace back to the early 2010s, when disaffected Muslim communities in northern Mozambique—historically marginalized by the central government—began organizing in response to perceived neglect and economic disparity.

The discovery of vast natural gas reserves in 2010 intensified grievances, particularly as international firms like Anadarko (later acquired by TotalEnergies) established operations in the region. Cabo Delgado, despite being rich in ruby, gold, marine wildlife, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), remains Mozambique’s poorest province, plagued by droughts, cyclones, and declining agricultural output. In October 2017, around 30 fighters launched coordinated attacks on police stations and civilians in Mocimboa de Praia, marking the start of the insurgency. Analysts note that crackdowns in neighboring Tanzania had pushed militant leaders across the border, where they framed their campaign as a rejection of state institutions and Western influence in favor of an Islamic state.

The group’s tactics have been marked by extreme brutality. Between 2017 and 2019, 464 civilians were killed, with fighters carrying out public beheadings, mass shootings, and arson attacks on football pitches. The violence peaked in 2020 when ISMP seized Mocimboa de Praia and advanced toward the TotalEnergies LNG project site. In response, Mozambican forces—criticized for their limited training, equipment, and alleged corruption—struggled to contain the rebellion. President Filipe Nyusi later admitted that some military personnel had “sold out their homeland” by leaking operational details to insurgents.

In January 2021, TotalEnergies evacuated staff following attacks near the LNG site, and by March, the company suspended the $20 billion project after fighters destroyed Palma, a town just 10 kilometers away. Mozambique subsequently sought external support, signing agreements with Rwanda and SADC. Rwanda deployed 1,000 battle-trained soldiers in July 2021, followed by a 2,200-strong SADC force. Joint offensives reclaimed territory, pushing ISMP back into its forest strongholds. By late 2021, defections rose as fighters reportedly faced severe supply shortages.

Yet ISMP has since regrouped, adapting its strategy to sustain operations. With external funding from Somalia cut off due to intensified U.S.-backed counterterrorism efforts, the group has turned to domestic revenue streams, including kidnappings for ransom, illegal gold mining, and extortion via mobile money networks. “They’re quite adaptable,” Bofin noted. “They can change circumstances quickly while maintaining coherence in leadership structures.” Today, around 5,000 Rwandan troops remain in northern Mozambique, primarily securing the LNG corridor, while SADC’s 2,200-strong contingent withdrew in 2024 amid reported frictions with Mozambican forces. Analysts suggest the exit allowed ISMP to regain influence in towns such as Macomia and Quissanga.

With the conflict approaching its tenth year, President Nyusi has signaled a willingness to explore negotiations—a departure from his predecessors’ purely military approach. While details remain unclear, the president acknowledged the challenge of identifying legitimate interlocutors. “We will continue working [on the battlefield], while we also try to identify the leaders and their motivations, to see if, through this path, we can also continue working,” he told Al Jazeera. Such talks are not unprecedented in Africa; local agreements with armed groups have been brokered in countries like Burkina Faso, though no evidence suggests Mozambique is pursuing state-level negotiations at this stage.

For now, the humanitarian toll continues to mount. Aid agencies warn that without sustained funding and a multi-pronged strategy addressing both security and development, northern Mozambique’s crisis will deepen. As displacement figures rise and climate-related disasters compound the suffering, the region’s future remains precariously balanced between war and fragile recovery.

Related: TotalEnergies