Sudan’s SAF pushes into North Kordofan, breaking a 18‑month stalemate

KUALA LUMPUR, 14 AUGUST 2026 —

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has broken the RSF encirclement around El Obeid after a coordinated offensive that began on 12 August, according to ACLED data.

The breakthrough signals the start of a third phase of the war. The SAF now aims to expand into RSF strongholds in Darfur and West Kordofan, which the RSF has held for over three years, while the RSF is attempting to relieve pressure on its western fronts with offensives in Blue Nile and increased drone strikes on Khartoum and River Nile.

Air power is becoming the decisive factor. In June the RSF launched 44 drone attacks, but the figure fell 43 % in July to just 25 events, according to ACLED. At the same time, RSF‑allied forces carried out 70 attacks on civilians in July, the highest monthly total of the conflict.

The decline in aerial attacks, coupled with a steady flow of RSF fighters defecting to the SAF, suggests a significant disruption of the RSF’s supply lines and strike capacity.

The shift to peripheral ground offensives and reliance on air and drone strikes is expected to continue, with both sides seeking to tip the balance. The SAF’s recent gains in North Kordofan could enable further advances into RSF‑held territory, while the RSF’s attempts to regroup on multiple fronts may prove unsustainable. The ongoing escalation is likely to increase civilian casualties and destabilise the region further.

For investors and policymakers monitoring African security dynamics, the SAF’s advances could reshape the balance of power in the Sahel and alter the strategic calculus of external actors involved in Sudan. The conflict’s trajectory remains uncertain, but the current trend points to a more fragmented RSF and a SAF that is increasingly able to project power beyond its traditional strongholds.