US forces leave Iraq, raising fears of Iran-backed militias amid power vacuum

KUALA LUMPUR, 30 SEPTEMBER 2026 —

US forces are withdrawing from their remaining bases in Iraq on Wednesday, completing a pullout agreed in 2024 under former president Joe Biden and executed by the administration of President Donald Trump.

Iraqi officials and analysts warn the withdrawal could leave a dangerous security vacuum, embolden Iran-backed militias and give Islamic State fighters room to rebuild capabilities nearly a decade after the collapse of their self-proclaimed caliphate. "The lesson from the past two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous," said Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises the security forces.

Baghdad-based political analyst Ahmed Younis added: "What is further concerning is not necessarily direct Iranian intervention, but the possibility that Iran's proxies will feel increasingly empowered in the absence of a Western military presence. These groups may attempt to expand their role in shaping state policies and consolidating their presence within key institutions."

US forces invaded Iraq in 2003, installed a Shi'ite-led government and fought a years-long counterinsurgency — first by Saddam loyalists, then al-Qaeda — before withdrawing at the end of 2011. They returned less than three years later to help Iraqi forces defeat Islamic State in a major war from 2014 to 2017.

Around twice as many Americans died in "Operation Iraqi Freedom" as in the parallel war in Afghanistan, which ended with an abrupt US withdrawal in 2021. In the current year's conflict with Iran, seven of the 18 US service members listed as killed were in Iraq, the last an army sergeant who died during the controlled detonation of a drone at a base near Erbil in July.

Over more than 20 years of war, 4,500 American forces died in Iraq.

Iran, which says its ultimate aim is to force American forces to leave the entire Middle East, casts the US withdrawal from Iraq as a triumph for its network of allied armed groups across the region. While the departure of US forces is broadly popular among Iraqis, some worry that security forces trained and funded by the United States still cannot protect the country.

US troops had been providing Iraqi security forces with critical intelligence on Islamic State movements, aerial surveillance and reconnaissance.

Iraqi security officials in both the federal government and the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region say the pullout risks giving new life to Islamic State fighters, who retain a sleeper cell network despite the defeat of their caliphate. At their height, the militants occupied a third of Iraq and slaughtered thousands of people, including hundreds they videotaped themselves gunning down inside a former US military base.

"The most important question now is whether Iraq's security institutions have prepared a viable Plan B for the post-coalition phase," said retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri, who led a brigade in the war against Islamic State. "One of the worst-case scenarios would be Islamic State obtaining armed drones or improvised explosive drones at a time when Iraq still lacks sufficient air defence capabilities to counter such threats effectively."