Sara Duterte leads September poll of 2028 presidential hopefuls

PHILIPPINES, MINDANAO, VISAYAS, METRO MANILA, LUZON, NAGA CITY, 13 OCTOBER 2026 —

Vice President Sara Duterte Leads 2028 Philippine Presidential Race in Polls, Dominating Mindanao and Visayas Support

Vice President Sara Duterte has emerged as the frontrunner in a hypothetical 2028 Philippine presidential race, securing 50% support among 2,400 adult respondents in a Pulse Asia survey conducted from September 17 to 24. Her lead over Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo (26%) and Senator Raffy Tulfo (12%) underscores her dominant position in national politics, particularly in her home region of Mindanao, where she commands 92% backing.

The survey results signal a potential shift in Philippine electoral dynamics, with Duterte’s support extending beyond her traditional stronghold. Her 56% approval in the Visayas and 40% in Metro Manila—key battlegrounds in past elections—demonstrates broad regional appeal. Meanwhile, Robredo’s 36% support in Luzon (excluding Metro Manila) suggests a competitive race in the country’s most populous island, where Duterte trails by just 8 percentage points.

The data also reveals deep socioeconomic penetration, with Duterte’s backing ranging from 44% among the lowest-income respondents to 68% among the highest.

Beyond the presidency, the poll highlights a fractured vice-presidential field, with Senator Christopher Go leading at 31%, followed by Senators Robin Padilla (19%) and Bam Aquino (17%). In the senatorial race, former Senator Grace Poe tops the list with 50.2%, narrowly ahead of Senator Alan Peter Cayetano (46.5%).

Senators Padilla (45.9%) and Tulfo (44.4%) also feature prominently, while Mayor Sebastian Duterte (37.2%), former Senator Manny Pacquiao (36.5%), and Senator Loren Legarda (33.0%) round out the top seven. The survey further indicates strong public engagement, with 89% of respondents expressing interest in the upcoming electoral cycle.

For Malaysian and regional observers, the poll results reflect broader trends in Southeast Asian politics, where dynastic politics and regional strongholds often dictate electoral outcomes. Duterte’s commanding lead—particularly in Mindanao—mirrors the influence of family political legacies, akin to Malaysia’s own political dynasties. Her cross-regional support also suggests a potential consolidation of power under the Duterte name, which could have implications for Philippine foreign policy, including economic ties with Malaysia and ASEAN neighbors.

The survey’s methodology—conducted via face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample—adds credibility to the findings. However, the hypothetical nature of the 2028 race means actual voter behavior could shift based on real-world events, candidate alliances, or economic conditions. For now, Duterte’s dominance in the poll positions her as the most formidable contender, with Robredo and Tulfo as the primary challengers.

The vice-presidential and senatorial results further illustrate a fragmented but highly competitive political landscape, where incumbency, celebrity, and regional influence will likely determine final outcomes.

The next critical phase will be the formal declaration of candidacies, expected in early 2027, which could reshape the race. Until then, Duterte’s poll lead remains the most definitive indicator of Philippine electoral intent, with her campaign likely to capitalize on her current momentum. For Malaysian investors and policymakers, the results may prompt closer scrutiny of Philippine political stability, particularly as economic cooperation between the two nations deepens under shared ASEAN priorities.