As drone attacks on Ukraine intensify, Eastern Europe is straining to counter the spillover

KUALA LUMPUR, 25 AUGUST 2026 —

Romania shot down 17 Russian drones in the past three months as stray ordnance from the war in Ukraine damaged ports, ships and homes along the Black Sea coast, according to NATO air policing data.

The surge follows intensified Russian strikes on Ukraine’s Danube and Black Sea ports that pushed wreckage and live drones into Romanian, Bulgarian and Moldovan territory. In Romania’s Galați county, a Russian drone crashed into an apartment building in March, injuring two civilians, while a Ukrainian naval drone detonated at the port of Constanța in the same month.

Two Russian drones also struck an LPG tanker and a coal ship in Romania’s exclusive economic zone in July, forcing emergency responses for the crews of Ukraine-bound vessels.

Romania has responded by accelerating deployment of the MEROPS anti-drone system, upgrading coastal monitoring with uncrewed platforms and authorising allied fighter jets to intercept intruders. Bulgaria raised alarms after a Ukrainian decoy drone landed near a key gas pipeline in Dobrich province and a Russian reconnaissance drone washed ashore in early August. Moldova, which lacks any anti-drone capacity, recorded 17 incursions by Russian drones or drone-carried missiles in 2026, including over the breakaway Transnistria region.

Neighbouring NATO states have also felt the pressure. Latvia’s coalition collapsed in June after Ukrainian drones triggered a fire at an oil facility, prompting the government to rely on NATO’s Air Policing Mission for cover. Finland temporarily restricted air and maritime traffic during Ukrainian strikes on Russian Baltic ports, citing fears of electronic interference that might divert drones into Finnish airspace.

Estonia and Lithuania have reported material damage from Ukrainian overflights and accidental landings since the start of 2026.

Kyiv has acknowledged the risks and pledged better communication with Black Sea and Baltic partners about uncrewed-system operations. Analysts at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels say the pattern is likely to persist as long as drone production and financing remain intact and weather permits sustained sorties.

Southeastern Romania, all of Moldova, and municipalities along the Russian-Belarusian frontier in the Baltics remain at continuous risk of incursions capable of damaging infrastructure and endangering civilians.

NATO and EU capitals now face a choice: scale up dedicated drone defences while US troop commitments remain uncertain, or accept repeated airspace violations and material costs on the alliance’s eastern flank. Romania and Moldova, directly exposed to Russian barrages on Ukraine’s export routes, are expected to bear the brunt of spillover damage in the coming months.

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