U.S. GDP, corporate profits, state personal income and PCE Data for Q2 2026, Q4 2025 released

NEW YORK, 2 OCTOBER 2026 —

The United States economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026, according to the third estimate released on September 30 by the U.S.

The revision was primarily driven by upward adjustments to investment, consumer spending, and government spending, indicating that the underlying momentum of the U.S. economy remained robust despite earlier concerns.

For Malaysian and regional investors, the strength of the U.S. economy carries significant implications for global trade flows and capital markets. A solid U.S. expansion typically supports demand for imported goods, which can benefit export-oriented economies in the Asia-Pacific region. The BEA noted that imports, which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP, increased during the second quarter, reflecting this sustained demand. While the U.S.

data does not directly measure Malaysian exports, the broader context of strong American consumer spending and investment suggests a favorable environment for regional trade partners, including Malaysia, which relies heavily on exports to major developed markets.

The second quarter’s growth was fueled by contributions from consumer spending, investment, and exports. From an industry perspective, the increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) reflected increases in real value added of 2.5 percent for private services-producing industries and 2.3 percent for private goods-producing industries. Government activity contributed less than 0.1 percent to the growth.

The leading industry contributors to the overall increase were real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance. Conversely, the leading offsets to growth were decreases in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable goods manufacturing.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a metric that sums consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 4.6 percent in the second quarter. This figure was revised up 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate, highlighting the resilience of domestic demand. Real gross output increased 5.0 percent in the quarter, with private services-producing industries seeing a 6.0 percent rise, private goods-producing industries rising 3.0 percent, and government output increasing 2.6 percent.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.6 percent, revised up 0.4 percentage point, while the average of real GDP and real GDI increased 2.4 percent, revised up 0.6 percentage point.

Inflationary pressures remained a key focus, with the price index for gross domestic purchases increasing 5.6 percent in the second quarter, a figure revised down 0.2 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, increased 5.0 percent, revised down 0.3 percentage point. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index increased 3.3 percent, also revised down 0.3 percentage point.

These revisions suggest that while inflation remains elevated, the pace of price increases may be moderating slightly, a development that could influence global monetary policy expectations and interest rate trajectories.

Profits from current production, defined as corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, increased by $384.0 billion in the second quarter. This figure was revised down by $16.9 billion from the previous estimate. The state-level data provided further granularity into the U.S. economic landscape, showing that real GDP increased in 44 states and the District of Columbia.

The percent change at an annual rate ranged from a 4.0 percent increase in New York to a 2.3 percent decrease in West Virginia. Finance and insurance was the leading contributor to the increase in real GDP in New York and Delaware, while mining was the leading contributor to the decrease in West Virginia and Wyoming.

The release also included data on personal income, which increased by $314.3 billion, or 4.7 percent at an annual rate, in the second quarter of 2026. Personal income increased in 49 states and the District of Columbia, with the percent change ranging from 6.4 percent in Wisconsin to a 4.2 percent decrease in North Dakota.

Earnings, comprising compensation plus proprietors’ income, increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia, with the percent change ranging from 7.3 percent in Minnesota to a 9.3 percent decrease in North Dakota. Personal current transfer receipts increased in 48 states and declined in the District of Columbia, with the percent change ranging from 13.0 percent in Wisconsin to a 3.9 percent decrease in Oregon.

Property income, including dividends, interest, and rent, increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the percent change ranging from 5.1 percent in Tennessee to 3.3 percent in Iowa.

Looking back at 2025, current-dollar personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 5.3 percent, rising in 14 of the 16 major categories for which the BEA prepares estimates. PCE by state increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the percent change ranging from 7.0 percent in Florida to 4.2 percent in California. Health care and housing and utilities were the leading contributors to the increases in PCE in most states, including Florida.

This data underscores the continued strength of consumer spending in the U.S. economy, a trend that has persisted into 2026.

The BEA’s release also included results from the 2026 annual update of the National Economic Accounts, covering the period from the first quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2026. This update resulted in revisions to GDP, GDP by industry, GDI, and their major components, with the reference year remaining 2017. The release also included annual updates of GDP by state, personal income by state, and PCE by state.

Most data are now available through the BEA’s Interactive Data application on the BEA website. An article describing the update in more detail is posted in the Survey of Current Business.

Revisions to the first quarter of 2026 data were also included in the release. Real GDP for the first quarter is now estimated to have increased 2.5 percent, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point from the previously published estimate. This revision primarily reflected upward adjustments to exports of services and consumer spending on both goods and services.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers is now estimated to have increased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. From an industry perspective, real value added for private goods-producing industries is now estimated to have increased 1.5 percent, a downward revision of 3.0 percentage points.

Private services-producing industries increased 2.1 percent, an upward revision of 1.3 percentage points, while government increased 6.3 percent, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points.

Real gross output for the first quarter is now estimated to have increased 2.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.6 percentage point. Private goods-producing industries decreased 0.9 percent, a downward revision of 0.9 percentage point, while private services-producing industries increased 2.9 percent, an upward revision of 1.2 percentage points. Government output increased 5.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point.

The price index for gross domestic purchases is now estimated to have increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage point. The PCE price index increased 4.2 percent, also revised down 0.4 percentage point, and the core PCE price index increased 3.9 percent, revised down 0.5 percentage point.

Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, 1.3 percentage points higher than previously estimated, with compensation being the leading contributor to the upward revision based on new wage and salary data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The average of real GDP and real GDI is now estimated to have increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, 0.8 percentage point higher than previously estimated.

The next release, the Advance Estimate for the third quarter of 2026, is scheduled for October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT.