What does Man City's guilty verdict mean for their squad?

PREMIER LEAGUE, 2 OCTOBER 2026 —

The independent commission’s verdict that Manchester City is guilty of all charges relating to breaches of the Premier League’s financial regulations between the 2009-10 and 2017-18 seasons has cast a profound shadow over the club’s future, creating immediate uncertainty regarding the retention of its squad and its ability to operate in the transfer market.

While the club has repeatedly denied guilt and is preparing an appeal that must be lodged by Friday, the lack of definitive clarity on the specific sanctions to be imposed has left players, agents, and rival clubs in a state of heightened anxiety.

The central question facing the footballing world is no longer just about the punishment, but how such a punishment will reshape the human capital of the club, specifically whether elite talent will remain or depart in the face of potential demotion.

The immediate implication of the verdict is a pervasive fear of a mass exodus should the Premier League impose a drop down the leagues. Sources close to the first team indicate a significant level of concern among current squad members, many of whom are international talents whose personal sponsorship agreements and global profiles are heavily dependent on competing in the Premier League.

The scathing tone of the Premier League’s statement on Tuesday has fueled major skepticism among people close to the players that the forthcoming appeals will earn the club any reprieve. However, perspectives within the camp are divided; while some are deeply worried, others remain steadfast in their belief in the vows of club executives Khaldoon Al Mubarak and Ferran Soriano to prove the club’s innocence.

This internal dichotomy complicates the club’s ability to project stability, a key factor in retaining high-profile assets in a market where perception often drives value.

For players who decide they do not wish to drop down the divisions, the process of leaving is unlikely to be straightforward, as the club retains significant leverage over its own assets. Regardless of individual views on departure, Manchester City has the right to demand transfer fees, and given the high wage values and market worth of its players, the club is unlikely to accept being undercut.

Furthermore, it is understood that the majority of players do not have relegation clauses in their contracts, a contractual detail that plays into the club’s hands by preventing automatic releases. Additionally, players’ contracts are generally fully guaranteed, meaning they would not be required to take percentage pay cuts even if the club loses its top-flight status.

This contractual rigidity creates a financial paradox for the club, which must maintain one of the highest wage bills in the world without the corresponding Premier League-level income.

The financial sustainability of the squad is a critical issue, as maintaining such salary expenditure becomes significantly harder without the revenue streams associated with the top flight. While parachute money could potentially ease these concerns, there are no guarantees that the club would be entitled to such payments if demoted. Consequently, the prospect of City keeping its squad completely intact should it move down the leagues appears unlikely.

The club’s approach to selling players will depend on how bullish it is about the situation; while it is not a distressed seller and holds strong control of the situation, it is unlikely to simply roll over and let disillusioned players depart without suitable offers. The club can ride the storm financially, but the strategic decision to sell or hold will be dictated by the severity of the final sanctions.

Players face massive decisions that extend beyond the immediate desire to leave, as Manchester City is known as a big payer, and other clubs may not be willing to meet similar wage demands. One agent told BBC Sport, "Some players want medals, all players want money," highlighting the tension between sporting ambition and financial security. In terms of potential contract renewals, the current uncertainty over sanctions provides a major element of risk for both parties.

Amending a contract retrospectively to include a relegation clause generally cannot happen; any deals that include exit strategies for players if the club falls out of the Premier League would have to be negotiated as new contracts. This legal constraint adds a layer of difficulty for the club, as players are likely to want to wait for clarity on the sanctions before entering into contract discussions.

To persuade a player to renew, the club might need to offer a significant financial incentive to negate the risk of relegation. However, a number of agents who spoke to BBC Sport believe players will be advised to wait for clarity on the punishments before even considering opening talks.

Fortunately for the club, the immediate urgency of contract expirations is lower than it could have been, as only Mateo Kovacic, Matheus Nunes, Marcus Bettinelli, and Geronimo Rulli have contracts expiring in the next two summers. This provides a temporary buffer, allowing the club to navigate the initial shock of the verdict without the immediate pressure of multiple high-profile departures due to contract expiry.

The landscape is further complicated by Fifa’s preparation to introduce new rules stating that every deal signed on 1 January 2027 or after must include a release clause. This regulatory shift intersects with the club’s current crisis, potentially altering the long-term structure of player contracts. The looming punishment certainly complicates City’s plans in the transfer market, as the uncertainty deters new investment. One leading agent noted, "This isn’t the players’ failing, it’s on the club.

Potential new signings aren’t even in the building and joining City without knowing what the punishment would be represents an undeniable risk, so any new contracts would have to have indemnities." This sentiment underscores the heightened risk premium that any new signing would demand.

It was acknowledged that writing eventualities into new registrations is very difficult, though City players do have release clauses in their deals should the club enter into administration. Until a post-appeal verdict over sanctions is made, making new signings will certainly become more complicated. However, the club is still likely to be able to attract big players as it retains the financial muscle to do so.

One potential method of persuasion would be to offer a contract on big money with no pay decreases if the club is relegated, coupled with a fixed fee release clause if City do not return to the top flight within a set period. This hybrid approach attempts to mitigate the financial risk for the player while protecting the club’s asset value.

If sanctions ensure relegation and include further points deductions that stretch over multiple seasons, attracting top players will become significantly harder. While City could make a wage package hard to resist for elite players, it seems inconceivable that a footballer of that caliber would join with demotion a possibility, as there are likely to be other top options elsewhere.

The same logic applies to the retention of the current squad, with almost certain interest in their top players from other elite clubs across Europe. It will be very difficult for City to keep that level of player in the coming months and years while the legal saga plays out, as the uncertainty itself becomes a driving force for departure.

The verdict marks a pivotal moment in the club’s history, shifting the focus from on-field performance to off-field legal and financial survival. The interplay between contractual obligations, financial guarantees, and the psychological impact of the verdict creates a complex web of incentives for both the club and its players.

As the appeal process moves forward, the market will watch closely for any signals regarding the severity of the sanctions, as these will dictate the scale of the potential exodus. The club’s ability to navigate this period without losing its core competitive edge will depend on its capacity to offer financial security in an environment of profound institutional uncertainty.

Ultimately, the outcome of the appeal will determine whether Manchester City remains a top-flight powerhouse or enters a period of transition that could reshape its squad composition. The players, agents, and rival clubs are all positioned to react to the final sanctions, with the potential for a significant realignment of talent in the European football market.

The club’s financial strength provides a buffer, but it may not be enough to counteract the desire of elite players to avoid the stigma and reduced visibility associated with lower-league football. The coming weeks will be critical in determining the extent of the squad’s stability and the club’s ability to maintain its status as a global footballing institution.

Related: Manchester City · Khaldoon Al Mubarak · Premier League