Six months into the US-Iran war, Washington has no clear path to force Tehran to yield

WASHINGTON, KUALA LUMPUR, STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PERSIAN GULF, MIDDLE EAST, CHINA, IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, PAKISTAN, TURKEY, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, ISRAEL, 27 AUGUST 2026 —

President Donald Trump predicted the conflict would last “four to five weeks.” Six months on, Iran’s regime has neither collapsed nor surrendered despite heavy US and Israeli strikes.

Military escalation has stalled. Trump has repeatedly threatened further strikes only to back down because the US lacks the interceptors to protect allies and bases in the region, according to Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.

With the military option exhausted, the White House now says it will rely on economic pressure. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled “Operation Economic Outcast,” a plan to punish countries that do not tighten sanctions on Iran.

The plan hinges on threats rather than mandatory measures because Washington fears secondary sanctions could “blow up the global financial system,” Bessent told CFR. China buys more than 80% of Iran’s oil exports and has already forced the White House to retreat from tariffs on Chinese goods by threatening to restrict US access to critical minerals. President Xi Jinping is due in Washington next month.

Many experts doubt the administration will fully isolate Iran because of the risk to global markets and the danger of a diplomatic rupture with Beijing, Cook said. Yet with oil prices elevated and Iran still able to threaten neighbours and disrupt shipping, the White House cannot afford to let the stalemate continue indefinitely.

The administration is hoping a naval blockade will deepen the impact of existing sanctions and force Iran’s leadership to negotiate. This assumes the Iranian people can pressure their rulers, but Iran’s hardline leaders have shown a consistent willingness to use lethal force against street protesters, Cook noted.

US allies in the region are already hedging against a perceived decline in American influence. Saudi Arabia this month signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Pakistan and Turkey. The pact’s text has not been released, and Pakistan and Turkey did not intervene when the Houthis fired on Saudi Arabia two days after the deal was signed.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates is betting on the Abraham Accords, widening a rift that could complicate US diplomacy.

A diminished US footprint in the Gulf is likely in the years ahead, Cook said. Policymakers have long argued for a reduced role in the Middle East, and the Iran war may be accelerating that shift. Yet a less engaged America still faces risks from the region: “The Iranians, the Saudis, the Turks, the Israelis and others will try to order the region in ways that serve their interests,” he said.

“That raises the prospect of continued conflict and chaos.”