Six months into the Iran war, the United States has no good options
Operation Epic Fury failed to produce the quick victory that President Donald Trump predicted and may be remaking the political order in the Middle East.
Source: Council on Foreign Relations · August 27, 2026 at 1:00 AM · AI-assisted report
Opinion
WASHINGTON, KUALA LUMPUR, STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PERSIAN GULF, MIDDLE EAST, CHINA, IRAN, SAUDI ARABIA, PAKISTAN, TURKEY, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, ISRAEL, 27 AUGUST 2026 —
Six Months Into Iran War, U.S. Faces Limited Options as Regional Dynamics Shift
Market Impact
WASHINGTON/KUALA LUMPUR — Six months after the United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, the conflict shows no signs of resolution, with President Donald Trump’s initial predictions of a swift victory proving overly optimistic. Despite sustained U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that have targeted Iranian military infrastructure and leadership, Tehran has neither collapsed nor capitulated. A fragile ceasefire, agreed in April and extended in June, remains in place, but commercial activity through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil transit route—has yet to return to prewar levels.
The U.S. military’s inability to secure a decisive outcome has forced a shift in strategy. After repeatedly threatening further escalation, Washington has now pivoted toward economic pressure, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiling "Operation Economic Outcast" last week. The plan relies heavily on coercive diplomacy, including threats of secondary sanctions targeting countries that continue trading with Iran. However, the administration faces significant hurdles, including the risk of destabilizing the global financial system and provoking retaliation from major powers like China, which imports over 80% of Iran’s oil exports. Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the White House next month, further complicating enforcement efforts.
The stalemate has kept global oil prices elevated, raising concerns about U.S. influence in the Persian Gulf. Yet the Trump administration’s options remain constrained. Military escalation risks provoking Iranian retaliation against U.S. allies or bases, while economic measures could alienate key partners, including China. Analysts suggest the White House is banking on a naval blockade to tighten existing sanctions, hoping internal Iranian pressure will force concessions. However, Iran’s leadership has demonstrated resilience, using force to suppress domestic dissent and maintain control.
Regional allies are already recalibrating their strategies amid uncertainty over U.S. commitment. Saudi Arabia recently signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Pakistan and Turkey, though details remain undisclosed. The pact’s effectiveness was immediately questioned when Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia resumed just 48 hours after its announcement. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates is prioritizing the Abraham Accords, signaling a divergence in Gulf security approaches that could complicate U.S. diplomacy.
The U.S. military presence in the Middle East is also expected to decline, a shift some analysts argue is long overdue. However, reduced engagement carries risks, as regional powers—including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel—may pursue competing interests that could destabilize the region further. Experts warn that a less involved U.S. could still face indirect consequences from Middle Eastern conflicts that threaten its strategic or economic interests.
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Outlook The conflict’s trajectory remains uncertain, with neither military nor economic pressure yielding clear results. The U.S. may struggle to balance coercive measures with diplomatic realities, particularly as China’s role in the region grows. Regional allies’ shifting alliances could further dilute Washington’s influence, potentially reshaping Middle Eastern geopolitics in the coming years.