Iran war at six months leaves Strait of Hormuz disrupted and U.S. facing strategic setback

KUALA LUMPUR, 28 AUGUST 2026 —

Six months after the United States and Israel launched attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader and crippled its nuclear programme, the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, freedom of navigation is compromised, and Tehran’s incentive to weaponise its remaining capabilities has risen, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

“After six months of war, on-again, off-again negotiation, intermittent escalation, and stalemate, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is greatly compromised, U.S. partners on the western side of the Persian Gulf are vulnerable to Iranian attacks, and the incentive for Tehran to weaponize its nuclear program is greater than ever,” Cook told CFR.

Operation Epic Fury relied on rapid military success to force regime change or surrender. When that did not materialise, Washington pivoted to economic pressure under a second initiative, Operation Economic Outcast. Trump argues that deeper sanctions will either collapse the Islamic Republic or compel its leaders to negotiate.

Yet Cook cautioned that Iran’s population has endured economic hardship for years, and the additional pressure since the war began has not translated into popular revolt. “The economic situation for most Iranians has been bad for years and has only gotten worse since the beginning of the war,” he said.

“That is why, in part, they took to the streets in December 2025 and January 2026, demanding change.” The regime responded with lethal force, demonstrating that economic warfare is no more certain than direct military action.

Regional partners now question Washington’s capacity and willingness to guarantee their security. “Because Trump expected a quick victory, he is now confronted with the possibility of defeat and a stack of questions (with few answers) among regional leaders about the United States’ ability and willingness to ensure their security,” Cook said.

The conflict has also energised Iran’s digital influence operations. Farah Pandith, CFR senior fellow and former counter-extremism adviser to three U.S. presidents, said Tehran has used sophisticated online propaganda—memes, videos, and social media—to frame the war as resistance against Israel and the United States.

This content targets global youth already primed by earlier crises: the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, Israel’s subsequent operations in Gaza and Lebanon, the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and normalization deals between Israel and Muslim-majority states.

“The war has added further fuel to Iran’s use of well-timed, sophisticated online propaganda that utilizes memes, videos, and social media to reinforce decades-old narratives and grievances about Israel and the United States,” Pandith wrote. She warned that Iran’s messaging has created a dangerous content advantage that could inspire lone actors to stage attacks on soft targets inside the United States.

“This could involve attempted assassinations of public figures and other violence in the U.S. homeland through radicalization and recruitment, including efforts to engage youth and criminals through cash incentives,” she said. Even if hostilities cease, the volume of content and the platforms that distribute it mean the ideological damage will persist for years.

Turkey has seized the moment to expand its regional role regardless of the war’s outcome. Henri J. Barkey, adjunct senior fellow at CFR and emeritus professor at Lehigh University, said President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan views the conflict as an opportunity to elevate Turkey’s status as a global power.

“Paradoxically, Ankara benefits regardless of the war’s outcome,” Barkey said. “As one of the strongest military powers in the region, Turkey would see its standing as a counterweight or balancer boosted by a U.S. defeat.” The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed on August 7 by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey formalises Ankara’s inclusion in a new regional security pact—the first since the 1955 Baghdad Pact.

Barkey noted that Washington has historically resisted Turkish autonomy in the Middle East except as a junior partner. Under Trump, however, U.S. policy has shifted: the president now expects Erdoğan to help constrain Iran and has hinted that greater Turkish influence could allow a future reduction of American forces in the region.

“Even before the war, Trump had envisioned that increased Turkish clout could help set in motion a reduction in the regional U.S. military presence,” Barkey said. “The Iran war may even accelerate this process.” A U.S. victory would also benefit Turkey by removing Iran as a disruptive neighbour, opening economic opportunities for Ankara.

Elliott Abrams, CFR senior fellow and former U.S. special representative for Iran, said the conflict has deepened U.S.-Israel military cooperation but exposed diplomatic strains. He expects those tensions to intensify if Israel presses for a decisive victory while Washington seeks a negotiated settlement.

“A U.S. victory against Iran would benefit Turkey, although perhaps not as much strategically,” Abrams said, noting that Iran’s revisionist policies have historically destabilised the region. “The defeat of the ayatollahs and regime change in Iran would open new avenues, especially economic, for Ankara.”

Looking ahead, Cook warned that Washington remains unprepared for the ideological fallout. “The events of the last six months, showcased on small phone screens in every possible manner, have opened a new chapter in violent extremism for which the United States is not prepared,” he said. “Extremists thrive when they can create new armies. The damage from this war will reverberate for years to come.”

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