Six Months of War With Iran, Steven Cook Says

KUALA LUMPUR, 27 AUGUST 2026 —

Six Months of War With Iran: A Shift in Gulf Power Dynamics

The war’s origins trace back to a U.S.-led military campaign launched after escalating tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and regional proxy activities. On Feb 28, the U.S. and Israel launched a coordinated strike codenamed Operation Epic Fury, targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and senior military leaders. The operation, which included a decapitation strike against Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and members of his family, marked a dramatic escalation in direct confrontation. Within days, Iran retaliated with ballistic missile, cruise missile, and drone attacks against U.S. military bases and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain.

One of the most immediate consequences has been the near-total disruption of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil exports. According to analysts, oil flows through the strait have plummeted to an estimated five million barrels per day—down from the pre-war level of 20 million barrels. While some shipping has been rerouted under U.S. escort through the southern corridor, the volume remains a fraction of historical levels. Steven Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle East and North Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted that the loss of free navigation has not only disrupted energy markets but also eroded the U.S.-led security architecture that once ensured regional stability.

Iran’s military actions have also expanded beyond its traditional reliance on proxy forces. For the first time, Iran has directly targeted GCC states using precision-guided missiles and drones, striking facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even Oman—despite Oman’s stated neutrality. “There is not a country in the Gulf that they have not attacked,” Cook said in a recent interview. The attacks have demonstrated Iran’s ability to inflict significant damage beyond its borders, raising concerns among Arab neighbors about their vulnerability to future strikes. In response, the UAE severed trade ties with Iran, while Saudi Arabia formalized a new defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey, known as the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signaling a shift toward regional self-reliance.

Economically, the U.S. has pivoted from direct military confrontation to intensified economic pressure. In June 2025, President Donald Trump approved a strategy to impose sweeping sanctions on Iran, described by the administration as an “economic D-Day.” The goal is to isolate Iran diplomatically and financially, forcing concessions without further kinetic engagement. However, the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain. Cook cautioned that while the U.S. targeted Iran’s nuclear program during the initial phase of the war, the extent of damage to Iran’s capabilities is unclear. “We still don’t know what the extent of that damage is,” he said. “The Iranians used the nine-month window before the war to prepare for the next round. They likely dispersed what remained of their nuclear program.”

The war has also reshaped Iran’s internal power structure. The decapitation strikes succeeded in removing top leadership, including Khamenei and key IRGC commanders, but failed to trigger regime change. Instead, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has consolidated power, filling the vacuum left by the fallen leadership. “The regime is a system,” Cook explained. “You can lop off 40 people, and another 40 will emerge who are ideologically consistent with the regime.” This shift suggests that Iran’s political structure remains resilient, despite the loss of its supreme leader and senior figures. The IRGC’s rise to prominence has further militarized Iran’s governance, reducing prospects for diplomatic engagement with the West.

For Malaysia and Southeast Asia, the war’s impact is indirect but significant. As a major importer of Middle Eastern oil and a hub for regional trade, Malaysia is exposed to fluctuations in global energy prices and supply chains. The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to volatility in crude oil markets, affecting import costs for Malaysian refiners and consumers. Additionally, the realignment of Gulf alliances—particularly the growing ties between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan—could influence Malaysia’s diplomatic and economic engagements in the Muslim world. While Malaysia has maintained a policy of non-alignment, the shifting regional dynamics may prompt a reassessment of its strategic partnerships.

Regional stakeholders have responded with caution. Saudi Arabia’s decision to join the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement reflects a broader trend of Gulf states seeking to diversify their security partnerships amid perceived U.S. retrenchment. Turkey, a NATO member, has positioned itself as a mediator and potential security provider, while Pakistan’s involvement signals its growing role in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Meanwhile, Iran has warned Arab neighbors against cooperating with U.S. efforts to isolate Tehran, threatening retaliatory strikes if they do. “Iranian leaders have vowed to strike their Arab neighbors if they cooperate with the intensified U.S. effort to isolate Iran,” according to analysts tracking the conflict.

Looking ahead, the war’s trajectory remains uncertain. The fragile ceasefire, which has held for several weeks, offers a temporary reprieve but does not address the underlying tensions. Cook suggests that the U.S. may have already lost its dominant position in the Persian Gulf, not due to military defeat, but because of a strategic miscalculation. “The U.S.-led Middle East order is over,” he argued in a recent analysis. The war has exposed the limits of American influence and the resilience of Iran’s regime, even in the face of direct attacks. With Iran’s nuclear program likely dispersed and its leadership restructured, the path to de-escalation appears increasingly complex.

As the conflict enters its seventh month, the international community faces a critical question: Can economic pressure alone force Iran to negotiate, or will the region lurch toward another cycle of violence? For now, the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed, Gulf states are recalibrating alliances, and Iran’s IRGC holds the reins of power. The war may have ended the era of U.S. primacy in the Middle East—but it has not yet delivered the victory Washington sought.

Related: Steven Cook · Kuala Lumpur