Likely that 2026 will be the hottest year on record, experts say

KUALA LUMPUR, 14 AUGUST 2026 —

Likely 2026 to be Hottest Year on Record as Strong El Nino Looms

“El Nino is a giant hammer that the climate gets hit with,” said Zeke Hausfather, a scientist at Berkeley Earth. “It is going to scramble a lot of different things.”

The current El Nino, which began in June, is strengthening rapidly. Sea-surface temperatures in a key region of the Eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are projected to rise 4 degrees Celsius above normal, compared with 2.75 degrees Celsius during the 2015-2016 El Nino. This intensity is expected to drive extreme weather globally, including droughts in Western and Southern Africa, Australia, and India, and increased rainfall in parts of the southern United States.

The odds of 2026 becoming the hottest year have surged from 12% in July to 69% in August, according to Berkeley Earth. Last month, heatwaves triggered destructive wildfires in France and Spain, while a heat dome over the U.S. set record-high temperatures, including the hottest or second-hottest July ever recorded in major climate datasets. In the contiguous U.S., the average high temperature last month broke a 90-year-old record set during the Dust Bowl era.

While El Nino’s influence is significant, scientists caution that annual temperature rankings are provisional. Climate change, driven by long-term greenhouse gas emissions, remains the dominant factor. “The warming caused by greenhouse gas pollution is always there and increasing,” Hausfather noted.

The economic impact of El Nino is already being felt, particularly in emerging markets. In Peru, warming seas have halted anchovy fishing, while extreme weather events linked to El Nino are exacerbating economic challenges in countries affected by geopolitical conflicts, such as the Iran war. Rohde of Berkeley Earth added, “It will be giving us weather conditions that we would normally expect to be a decade or more away.

It’s going to be a big deal.” For Malaysia, a nation vulnerable to climate variability, the intensifying El Nino could disrupt agriculture, particularly palm oil and rubber production, and increase the risk of heat-related health issues. The country’s energy sector may also face strain as demand for cooling rises during prolonged heatwaves. However, specific economic projections for Malaysia were not provided in the analysis.

The outlook remains uncertain, with scientists emphasizing that while El Nino will have a short-term impact, the long-term trend of global warming continues unabated. “We are likely to see something quite dramatic in the next year or so,” said Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth. The coming months will be critical in determining the full extent of El Nino’s influence on global temperatures and weather patterns.

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