Can the SAF’s latest advances reshape Sudan’s war?
On 12 August, the RSF renewed its assault on El Obeid with drone strikes while also targeting Khartoum, and River Nile, as fighting intensified in Blue Nile. The developments come as recent SAF advances in North Kordofan put pressure on RSF positions across multiple fronts, pointing to a new phase of the war in which both sides are increasingly relying on air and drone strikes as ground offensives
Source: ACLED · August 13, 2026 at 10:38 PM · AI-assisted report
KUALA LUMPUR, 14 AUGUST 2026 —
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The conflict in Sudan has entered a new phase following significant advances by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in North Kordofan, breaking an 18-month Rapid Support Forces (RSF) encirclement around El Obeid. The breakthrough prompted the RSF to launch renewed drone strikes on El Obeid, Khartoum, and River Nile on 12 August, alongside intensifying clashes in Blue Nile, as both factions increasingly turn to aerial warfare while ground offensives shift to the peripheries.
Market Impact
Details on the direct impact of the escalating Sudanese conflict on Malaysian markets, trade, or bilateral economic interests are not yet available.
According to data from ACLED, the SAF's capture of the strategic Exports Road and the seizure of major RSF weapons and drone warehouses in Geberat Al Shaikh—the paramilitary group's primary regional logistics hub—has severely compromised RSF supply networks. RSF drone activity dropped 43% from 44 recorded strikes in June to 25 in July.
Concurrently, RSF-allied forces escalated attacks against civilians, targeting non-combatants in 70 separate incidents in July, representing its highest monthly total of 2026, amid an increasing trend of RSF fighters defecting to the SAF.
Looking ahead, the SAF aims to build on its North Kordofan gains to mount offensives toward long-held RSF strongholds in Darfur and West Kordofan, which the paramilitary group has occupied for more than three years. With the RSF under operational strain and facing disruptions across three parallel fronts, the continued transition to drone warfare and factional fragmentation is projected to severely affect civilians nationwide.