Negeri Sembilan state election to swing to BN‑PN coalition, analyst forecasts.
Political analyst Ong Kian Ming projects Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional will capture Negeri Sembilan with 23 to 25 of the state’s 36 seats in the coming election.
Source: The Rakyat Post · July 27, 2026 at 11:00 PM · AI-assisted report
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JOHOR, 28 JULY 2026 —
Political analyst Ong Kian Ming projects Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional will capture Negeri Sembilan with 23 to 25 of the state’s 36 seats in the coming election.
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According to his analysis published on Monday, the opposition coalitions would command a clear majority over Pakatan Harapan, which has led the state since 2016. Ong expects PH to retain only 11 to 13 seats, with PKR likely to hold just one and DAP the rest.
The arithmetic pivot is the BN-PN electoral pact, he says, which concentrates Malay support above 70%. That removes the three-way split that allowed PH to win in 2018 with 44.4% of the popular vote.
“With the electoral pact between PN and BN, it is very likely that Malay support for both coalitions will exceed 70%, allowing candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote,” Ong wrote.
PH’s hold on Negeri Sembilan has weakened since its 2018 peak. After Bersatu left PH in 2020, the coalition relied on a seat-sharing arrangement in the 2023 state election to retain control through Wisma Negeri.
Ong flags Chennah, the seat held by DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke, as the tightest race. The constituency has a 47.8% Malay electorate, and anti-DAP sentiment among a portion of those voters makes the outcome uncertain.
A swing among Orang Asli voters, who make up roughly seven per cent of the electorate and have historically leaned BN, could decide the outcome. Ong notes that such a shift “may be sufficient to give BN a small margin of victory” over MCA’s John Siow Kong Choon in Chennah.
BN-PN already hold 17 safe seats, according to the projection. Of the 10 seats Ong classifies as battlegrounds, he expects BN to win Jeram Padang and Linggi, while PN is tipped to take Klawang, Serting, Sikamat and Ampangan—six constituencies that would push the alliance past the 19-seat majority threshold.
Even if BN were to lose Linggi, Ong calculates the BN-PN alliance would still secure 23 seats, comfortably forming the next state government.
Bersatu, contesting outside the pact, is expected to have limited impact overall. Ong sees it as a potential spoiler in tight races by drawing votes from BN or PH, but unlikely to alter the final outcome.
Ong’s projection follows his correct call in Johor earlier this year, giving the forecast added weight.
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